Week 2 college football best bets: Analysis and advice on Penn State, Big Ten, NCAA
This year Jon Sauber and Josh Moyer will be doing a weekly betting advice column with their picks and analysis on the world of college football with one Penn State-related pick, one Big Ten-related pick and one NCAA-related pick. The picks will be made at one of four sportsbooks — FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM or Caesar’s — with recommendations on bet sizing based on units, along with the analysis.
Penn State best bet
Jon Sauber: Well, there’s no line up at any of the four reputable sportsbooks that we use. Given that, it’s kind of impossible to give out a Penn State bet. I’ll say this — Penn State is going to win this one running away and I predicted a final score of 55-6. Delaware being an FCS opponent has caused the delay in posting a line, but there should be one up Saturday morning. If you’re inclined to bet on the game, I’d use my predicted 55-6 score as a guide for this week since we don’t have specific lines. Even when backup quarterback Beau Pribula inevitably enters the game for the Nittany Lions, Delaware will still be outmatched in this one.
Big Ten best bet
Jon Sauber: Iowa-Iowa State u36.5 (-110 FanDuel)
This line is unbelievably low and somehow it’s not low enough. This isn’t just about Iowa ranking No. 93 and Iowa State ranking No. 81 in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s offensive SP+ — a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It’s also about both of these teams being among the elite on defense, with Iowa at No. 2 (!!!) and Iowa State at No. 11 in the country in defensive SP+. This is the perfect combination to create a low scoring affair that even the biggest college football fans may have a hard time watching.
Good news, just because you bet it, doesn’t mean you have to watch. Yes, this is a rivalry game, but it’s bound to be one of the ugliest offensive football games of the entire season. Honestly, the only hope for the over here is if each team scores at least one defensive touchdown each. Otherwise, this game should feature punting, turnovers and more punting. Give me the under here. (Bet 1 unit to win 0.9 units.)
Josh Moyer: Iowa-Iowa State u36.5 (-110 FanDuel)
I kind of hate that we have the same pick here, Sauber, but it’s hard to stay away from those Big Ten unders. (Exhibit A: My winning Rutgers-Northwestern under last week.) Iowa State’s offense actually has more questions than Iowa’s, given the fact starting QB Hunter Dekkers could lose collegiate eligibility after allegedly placing bets on 26 Cyclones sporting events. Plus, the jury’s still out on replacement QB Rocco Becht, who hardly faced a decent measuring stick last week against Northern Iowa.
But this game is about defense. And with two top-10 or top-15 defenses set to square off against two anemic offenses, it’s bound to be another puntapalooza. Consider parlaying the under with the Iowa moneyline for odds around +200, too. (Bet 1 unit to win 0.9 units.)
NCAA best bet
Jon Sauber: Oregon -6.5 vs. Texas Tech (-106 FanDuel)
You can get this at -6 at Draftkings for -112, but I’m willing to give up the hook for a better price here. Oregon has one of the best offenses in the country and should be able to light up a below average Texas Tech defense and build a lead. It’s not as if Texas Tech won’t score too — it has a good offense that should be able to score against most teams — but it’s offense is far closer to Oregon’s defense than it’s defense is to Oregon’s offense. The Ducks have a massive advantage when they have the ball and the Red Raiders should only have a slight advantage.
We’ll see if they can keep up offensively but the smart money says they won’t be able to for a full 60 minutes of game time. There’s trap game potential for Oregon here after Tech lost to a bad Wyoming team last week, but at the end of the day this is about one team being significantly better than the other. That doesn’t always win out in college football, but the disparity is wide enough here to take the Ducks. (Bet 1 unit to win 0.94 units.)
Josh Moyer: Utah -7.5 vs. Baylor (-112 DraftKings)
Sure, Utah QB Cam Rising might miss this game as he continues rehabbing from a torn ACL in the Rose Bowl. But it’s hard to be too concerned with the Utes’ offense after they beat Florida and then watched Baylor surrender 42 points to Texas STATE — yes, the mighty Sun Belt Bobcats — in a Week 1 loss. Texas State had six touchdowns compared to three punts.
On top of that, Baylor just lost its starting QB to a sprained MCL. And Utah’s defense is a top-15 unit, one that should force transfer QB Sawyer Robertson into some bad decisions to win the turnover battle. I’m buying Utah and selling Baylor this season, so I can’t say no to this matchup. Plus, the line already moved to -8.5 on BetMGM, so get -7.5 while you still can. (Bet 1 unit to win 0.89 units.)
