Penn State vs. Wisconsin: Final thoughts and analysis of PSU’s road matchup with the Badgers
Penn State will head on the road for its final game of October when it takes on Wisconsin in a Big Ten matchup. The Nittany Lions will play the Badgers in Camp Randall Stadium in Week 9 of the college football season. Here are some final thoughts, questions and predictions ahead of the Nittany Lions’ matchup with Wisconsin.
Make sure Warren’s involvement is high
There won’t be any sneaking Tyler Warren past a defense anymore. The Penn State tight end is the best at the position in the country and he put future opponents on notice after hauling in 17 catches for 224 yards and a touchdown against USC. But that also doesn’t mean there won’t be opportunities to get him involved in meaningful ways. That may not translate to a massive output when it comes to his receiving production — although I would still anticipate him getting plenty of looks in the passing game and being used in various ways on offense — but instead he could help without touching the ball as often as he did against the Trojans.
Warren’s presence is enough to put pressure on the Badgers and force them to focus on what he’s doing at all times. That should allow offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki to take the next step in Warren’s usage now that he’s had a massive breakout game — using him as decoy. Kotelnicki will be able to create mismatches and advantages for other Nittany Lions by using the tight end in that way, giving him just as much value as he has with the ball in his hands. While Warren is still the offense’s best player, that doesn’t always have to mean he’s its most productive pass catcher and I’d expect that to be the case more often.
Allar has to lead the way
Penn State will still need a productive passing game against the Badgers if they focus on limiting Warren, and that will be on junior quarterback Drew Allar to help create one. The starting quarterback has been a quality starter for most of the season. And after a slow start against USC, he closed the game against the Trojans looking like one of the best signal callers in the country. All of the positives about him remain true — he has one of the strongest arms in the country, is able to make high-difficulty throws and has good mobility.
But he still has yet to have a season-defining performance that you’d expect from a quarterback that has a chance to be a first round pick in the NFL Draft. This will be a chance for him to do that by building off what he accomplished on the game-tying drive he helped engineer against USC. I’d expect Allar to take a leading role in what should be a successful offensive day, assuming the Badgers prioritize taking away the running game and limiting Warren in the passing game.
Let Locke make mistakes
The Penn State defense has been criticized for the long drives it’s given up to open games, but outside of that it has been one of the best units in the country. ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+, a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency, has it as the No. 2 defense in the nation behind only Ohio State. And this week that group will have a chance to capitalize against a quarterback who isn’t afraid to take risks. Wisconsin starting quarterback Braedyn Locke, who took over as the signal caller after original starter Tyler Van Dyke suffered an injury, is prone to putting the ball in harm’s way.
He’s thrown five interceptions in five games this season and this is a defense that is good enough to make him pay when he makes poor decisions. Defensive coordinator Tom Allen’s unit has forced opponents to take what’s given to them on underneath routes while limiting big plays over the top. When Locke inevitably tries to connect on some of those shot plays, it will be on the Penn State secondary to make him pay and put the game out of reach.
Final predictions
Penn State 28, Wisconsin 10: I think it’s easy to call this one a trap game for Penn State, considering what lies ahead with Ohio State the following week, but I also think that probably won’t matter. The Nittany Lions are a few rungs better than the Badgers on the college football ladder and should be able to stifle what has been a mediocre Wisconsin offense. The Badger defense may put up more of a fight, but I trust that Andy Kotelnicki will win that head to head battle.
MVP: Tre Wallace. This should be an opportunity for the Nittany Lion receivers to get involved. As I said above, limiting Tyler Warren should be priority No. 1 for Wisconsin, which means the door will open for other receiving weapons. Wallace is still the most talented of the bunch and has the ability to put a game together like he did against West Virginia to open the season. I’ll say he goes over 100 yards and hauls in seven catches in the game, including one for a touchdown.
The last word
Penn State head coach James Franklin on how Kotelnicki’s offense has aligned with what he said when he was hired:
“To be honest with you, very similar. It was also about coming in here and only changing what we had to change because it wasn’t necessarily broke. It was that we need to do take the next step from a production standpoint and specifically from an explosive play perspective.
I think it’s been very similar to what we’ve talked about. I think he’s been comfortable because we spent a lot of time talking about how we operate and how we do things and what my expectations are and weekly practice schedules and spring ball and summer and all those types of things.
Then, also, from the other perspective getting an idea of how he wanted to operate and how he wanted to function and then also talking to people like their head coach as well as people on their staff as well. I think for the most part for both sides, for me and for him, I think it’s played out for the most part the way we both expected it to be.”
