Penn State vs. Ohio State: Final thoughts and analysis of PSU’s matchup with the Buckeyes
Penn State will have it biggest test of the season Saturday afternoon when it plays Ohio State in a Big Ten matchup. The Nittany Lions will play the Buckeyes in Beaver Stadium in Week 10 of the college football season. Here are some final thoughts, questions and predictions ahead of the Nittany Lions’ matchup with Ohio State.
Allar’s status dictates offense
The biggest question of the week seems like it will be a question until about 11:59 a.m. Saturday. Penn State quarterback Drew Allar left Saturday’s matchup against Wisconsin with an injury and did not return, and head coach James Franklin said the decision on his status will be taken all the way up to game time this week. And make no mistake about it, Allar’s status will determine just how likely it is that Penn State takes down Ohio State.
Yes, backup Beau Pribula played well against Wisconsin, but Allar’s passing ability is on another level compared to his backup’s and that’s something the Nittany Lions will need to tap into. He’s far better at stretching the field both vertically, with downfield shots, and horizontally, with long throws to the opposite sideline, and those are some of the areas this team will need to tap into to beat the Ohio State defense. If he can’t go, some of those opportunities should be taken out of the gameplan in order to best maximize what Pribula does well.
Kotelnicki faces toughest test
And speaking of the gameplan. Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has met and surpassed every expectation this season, but this will likely be the game that most judge him on. I don’t know if that’s fair, but such is life when you join the Penn State coaching staff right now. He’ll be facing the No. 1 ranked defense in the country according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+, a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency, and will be doing so with his starting quarterback and starting right tackle less than 100% healthy (if they play).
That’s a tough task for anyone, but Kotelnicki has been up to the challenge more often than not this season. The quarterback situation will be the most difficult to navigate given the difference in how the team’s top two play the position. Preparing for Ohio State would not be easy regardless, but if Kotelnicki gets this offense rolling on Saturday, there will be little doubt (not that there’s much right now) about just how good of a play caller and designer that he is.
Defense in position to succeed
The Buckeyes may have the top-ranked defense in the country, but Penn State’s isn’t far behind at No. 3. The unit has been even better than it has in years past and will be taking on an offense that isn’t quite as dominant as it usually is. Ohio State quarterback Will Howard is not an elite passer and has struggled at times this season with his decision making — with the end of the Oregon game when he slid with the clock at :00 and his team losing serving as the perfect example.
He has elite receivers in Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka — shocking that Ohio State would have some of the best at the position, I know — and they’ve been able to take care of business to help out the passing game. But eventually Howard will have to make plays to win this game. He’s been able to do that at times, but he’s far from a guarantee in that regard. Penn State will need to slow Howard and the team’s running backs — TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins (both also elite) — in the running game to make the quarterback put the ball in the air and potentially in harm’s way. Sure, the Buckeyes will still win plenty of those battles thanks to their receiver talent, but they will also be much more likely to make mistakes and give the defense opportunities to make the splash plays necessary to turn the game in Penn State’s favor.
Final predictions
Penn State 21, Ohio State 20: I said prior to the season that the Nittany Lions would beat the Buckeyes and I’ll stick to that. Ohio State’s offense doesn’t have the same level of quarterback play it has in the past. That makes all the difference in a tight matchup like this one with two elite defenses that will keep the game relatively low scoring. Regardless of who wins, I’d be surprised if it’s a blowout and if it’s high-scoring. These teams are too good, and so are the defenses, for it to go that way.
MVP: Nick Singleton. Penn State’s running game and physicality have won the day for the Nittany Lion offense this season and that should be the case if things go the team’s way Saturday. Singleton is a major part of that equation and I’d expect him to have an explosive play that shifts the game in PSU’s favor. I’ll go with 110 rushing yards, 25 receiving yards and a touchdown for the junior running back.
The last word
Penn State head coach James Franklin on playing Ohio State over the years:
“They’re a really good football team. They’re as talented of a roster as anybody in the country. They’re that way every single year. They are, as well, this year. We have to play really well. We have to play really clean. We’re going to need a great environment. Yeah, it’s a challenge. I think our guys are ready for the challenge. We’re going to have to have a really good week of practice.
We don’t need to change anything. We don’t need to do anything more than what we’ve done each week: just get better and refine our process. Yeah, that’s the plan, is be prepared for a really good team. It’s one of the most talented teams in the country. Are year in, year out. Also in terms of wins and losses, one of the most productive teams in the country. We’re fortunate to play them. We’re excited about the opportunity. That’s what we’re focused on, is the Ohio State team from this year and the Penn State team for this year, and what we have to do to find a way to get a win.
What I’m excited about is this team has showed all of our fans, all of our lettermen, our alumni, the students, everybody, that they’re going to find ways to get the job done. We’re going to have to do that again this week against a really good team who’s extremely talented.”
