Penn State holds at No. 4 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. Here’s what it means
Penn State remained No. 4 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings that came out Tuesday night, while also sticking at the No. 6 seed in the bracket.
Here’s what the latest rankings mean for the Nittany Lions the rest of the way.
Big Ten title is possible, but unlikely
Now that Oregon has officially clinched a spot in the Big Ten title game after defeating Wisconsin Saturday, there’s only one place in the game remaining. And Penn State’s chances of getting it are fairly slim. The Nittany Lions would need to win out (likely), have Ohio State beat Indiana (the Buckeyes are favored) and have Michigan beat Ohio State (unlikely). In that scenario, Penn State would be tied with the Hoosiers and would win the fourth tiebreaker in the Big Ten standings, which is essentially the combined record of conference opponents. With that unlikely, the Nittany Lions’ most likely landing spot is as a home team in the first round of the College Football Playoff.
No. 6 seed remains most likely outcome
More specifically, the No. 6 seed remains by far the most likely outcome for Penn State if it gets in the playoff. The Nittany Lions are very likely to remain behind both teams in the Big Ten title game — assuming it isn’t them — and those teams will probably be the No. 1 seed and the No. 5 seed in the playoff bracket. That puts PSU’s ceiling at No. 6, since the top four seeds all go to conference champions. With Penn State staying steady as the No. 4 team in the country, they’re unlikely to fall behind anyone that isn’t a conference champ, unless the committee continues to rank Texas as a better team if they don’t win the SEC title. If the Longhorns lost the SEC title game, but remained above Penn State in the rankings, then PSU could slide down to No. 7. Otherwise the sixth spot is where the Nittany Lions will end up.
Potential first round matchups in flux
Earning any of the No. 5-8 seeds would net Penn State a home game, and that is nearly a guarantee as long as the Nittany Lions win out against Minnesota and Maryland. Then the only question is a matter of who they would play, and right now that is too far away to prognosticate. There will assuredly be upsets in the final two weeks that jostle the lower third of the bracket and move teams around. But there is also room for the committee to slide teams around based on how they look over those final games, even if the results go as expected. If this were the final ranking, Penn State would play Georgia at home, but Ole Miss, Miami and Alabama are well within reach of being there, too. As are several other teams. The point is, while it’s fun to envision matchups two weeks out, it’s more likely than not that things will not stay the same between now and Dec. 8 when the final bracket is unveiled.
Here are the latest CFP rankings and projected matchups, in full.
First round
No. 5 seed Ohio State vs. No. 12 seed BYU
No. 6 seed Penn State vs. No. 11 seed Georgia
No. 7 seed Indiana vs. No. 10 seed Ole Miss
No. 8 seed Notre Dame vs. No. 9 seed Alabama
Byes: No. 1 seed Oregon, No. 2 seed Texas, No. 3 seed Miami, No. 4 seed Boise State
College Football Playoff rankings
(Nov. 19, 2024)
1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Indiana
6. Notre Dame
7. Alabama
8. Miami
9. Ole Miss
10. Georgia
11. Tennessee
12. Boise State
13. SMU
14. BYU
15. Texas A&M
16. Colorado
17. Clemson
18. South Carolina
19. Army
20. Tulane
21. Arizona State
22. Iowa State
23. Missouri
24. UNLV
25. Illinois
This story was originally published November 19, 2024 at 7:23 PM.
