How can Penn State beat Notre Dame to get to the national title game? Here are 2 key matchups

Penn State heads to Miami to play a College Football Playoff semifinal against Notre Dame at 7:30 p.m. Thursday in the Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium. How can the Nittany Lions defeat the Fighting Irish and earn a spot in the national title game?

Here are the two key matchups for Thursday night’s game that we believe will determine the outcome:

Jon Sauber: Penn State’s run defense vs. Notre Dame’s run game

This could flip to the other side of the ball too, but Penn State’s passing attack is good enough that it can hold its own if the Nittany Lions can’t run the ball. That isn’t the case for the Fighting Irish. They’ve leaned on their running game all season and for good reason — it’s elite. Running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price have combined for 1,796 yards on the ground, and quarterback Riley Leonard has added 831 of his own — and that’s with the negative yardage from sacks included. Those three have helped Notre Dame become one of the best running offenses in the country. The massive caveat for this game is that Love is dealing with an injury and did not look 100% healthy in the portion of Notre Dame’s Saturday practice that was open to the media. His status could have a massive impact on this game.

He and the rest of the Irish offense will be going up against one of the most suffocating run defenses in the country. Just take a look at past PSU performances. West Virginia’s C.J. Donaldson (who has since transferred to Ohio State) and Jaheim White combined for 1,579 rushing yards this season. They had 75 yards on 20 carries against PSU. Wisconsin’s Tawee Walker had 864 yards on 190 carries this season. He had 59 yards on 22 carries against Penn State. Washington’s Jonah Coleman had 1,053 yards on 193 carries this season. But only 24 yards on 11 carries against Penn State. Minnesota’s Darius Taylor had 986 yards on 205 carries. Yet only 58 yards on 17 carries against the Nittany Lions. And just last week Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty ended his season with 2,601 rushing yards but fell short of the single-season rushing record because he could only get 104 yards on 30 carries against Penn State.

All of that is to say, when this team faces an offense that heavily relies on its running game and struggles to pass, it succeeds at a high level. The only elite offenses to run well against Penn State (Ohio State, USC and Oregon) all had the passing game to keep the defense on its toes. Notre Dame does not have that. For as good as Riley Leonard has been for the Irish this season at quarterback, he is still not a great passer. The Irish will have to buck the trend and have a great day on the ground against Penn State despite not having a good passing game. I have to imagine whoever wins that battle will be heading to Atlanta for a shot at the national title.

Josh Moyer: Penn State offensive line vs. Notre Dame front-seven

Well, Jon, you’re half-right. In a battle between two college football blue bloods, the trenches will decide the winner. But I see no matchup quite as important as how well the Nittany Lions withstand the Irish front-seven.

Take a look at Notre Dame’s last two playoff games, and you’ll see why. In those two games, where neither opposing offense managed to reach 20 points, the Irish’s blitz-heavy defense combined for seven sacks, 19 tackles for loss and three QB hurries. (All but 3.5 TFLs and a QB hurry came from the front-seven.)

Let me point out the obvious here: It’ll be hard for Penn State QB Drew Allar to complete passes from his back. And stumbling forward after getting hit in the backfield won’t come easy for RBs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen either, considering the ground games for the Irish’s last two opponents — Indiana and Georgia — averaged less than 2.5 yards per carry.

If Penn State’s offensive line can’t neutralize some of that pressure, that means more stops in the backfield for Notre Dame. Which means more third-and-long situations for Penn State. (Georgia was 2-for-12 on third downs and 0-for-3 on fourth downs.) Which means more Penn State punts and turnovers. It’s a ripple effect.

So we can talk about how important Allar or TE Tyler Warren is to the Penn State offense — and they absolutely are — but, to me, it’s all going to start with this offensive line. Allar didn’t exactly light the Fiesta Bowl on fire in the face of pressure, as he completed less than half his passes when blitzed, and we all know what a strong running game does for this offense. If Penn State wins this matchup, I think it wins this game.

This story was originally published January 7, 2025 at 12:08 PM.

Jon Sauber

Centre Daily Times

(814) 231-6461

Jon Sauber covers Penn State football and men’s basketball for the Centre Daily Times. He earned his B.A. in digital and print journalism from Penn State and his M.A. in sports journalism from IUPUI. His previous stops include jobs at The Indianapolis Star, the NCAA, and Rivals.