Penn State vs. Notre Dame: Final thoughts & analysis of PSU’s CFP semifinal vs. Fighting Irish
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College Football Playoff Semifinal
Penn State football is headed to the semifinals of the College Football Playoff and will face Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl. Read all of our coverage leading up to the Jan. 9 game at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
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Penn State will play its third College Football Playoff game when it takes on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the semifinals on 7:30 p.m. Thursday. The Nittany Lions and Fighting Irish will meet at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, in the Orange Bowl. Here are some final thoughts, questions and predictions ahead of the Nittany Lions’ matchup with Notre Dame.
Notre Dame can be one-dimensional
The Fighting Irish have one of the best offenses in college football, but it’s almost entirely because the running game has been dominant. The team’s three top rushers — running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, along with quarterback Riley Leonard — have tallied 2,627 yards on the ground this year and have been able to gash opposing defense. Leonard has done enough as a passer, with good weapons on the outside, to keep defenses off-balance. That being said, Penn State is better equipped than any opponent the Irish have faced to make them one-dimensional.
The Nittany Lions have a strong front four, with Dvon J-Thomas leading the way as a run-stuffing defensive tackle, to limit the Notre Dame offense. The team’s linebackers have been much better at filling gaps and finishing tackles in its two postseason games, including against Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty — the Heisman Trophy runner-up who finished with a season-low 104 yards against PSU despite amassing 30 carries. Notre Dame’s running game is better than Boise State because its offensive line is arguably the best in the country, but if Penn State can find success against that trio of runners, it could force the Irish into a spot they don’t want to be in — one where they have to throw.
Penn State offense has to create explosive plays
Much like the Nittany Lions’ defense, Notre Dame’s is elite. Elite enough that I’d argue only Ohio State’s is better among teams Penn State has played — and the gap between the Irish and Buckeyes is far smaller than that between Notre Dame’s and whoever would be third on the list. Penn State’s best chance of cracking the group will be by beating it with big plays. The defense is too good to put together several long, methodical drives — and even if the Nittany Lions do that, the door will be open for the defense to create its own big plays by getting sacks or forcing turnovers.
I know some were frustrated with offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s play calling against Boise State because he was aggressive and pulled out all the stops in situations that some didn’t deem worthy of those types of calls, but he should call this game exactly like that one. Whatever he has in his bag of tricks should come out against the Irish. Kotelnicki excels at putting his players in advantageous positions and will have to be at the top of his game in that regard on Thursday night. Creating explosive plays won’t guarantee a win, but it will give Penn State its best chance at putting a number in the 20s or higher on the scoreboard.
Aggressiveness will be vital
Kotelnicki’s aggressiveness is only part of the equation, but it’s a good signal for what the entire game should look like for Penn State. Head coach James Franklin has emphasized his aggressiveness and dictating the terms of engagement this season when he discusses his in-game decision-making. That has to be the top priority against Notre Dame. Every fourth down with short yardage (and even some of medium length), every opportunity to score a touchdown in the red zone, every chance to gain an edge by going for two instead of kicking the extra point — Franklin should take them all.
Yes, I know that runs contrary to how some want the game called. But Franklin should be trying to do everything he can to win the game against Notre Dame, rather than prolonging a potential loss by keeping the game tight or making conservative decisions in big moments. The head coach has been criticized for his performance in Penn State’s biggest games, but this is his best chance to defeat that narrative. He should go out and put it all on the line by playing to win rather than playing to not lose. That is the best way for him to give himself a chance to silence doubters — and more importantly the best way for Penn State to maximize its chances of winning.
Final predictions
Penn State 21, Notre Dame 20: I could go either way with this game. I don’t think there will be a ton of points scored, and I tend to believe it will come down to the fourth quarter. Beyond that, who’s to say. These teams play very similarly and rely on dominant defenses to carry them. I’ll give Penn State the advantage because it can create more in the passing game, giving the Nittany Lions a better chance at creating game-changing plays.
MVP: TE Tyler Warren. This game is going to be about winning one-on-ones for the Penn State offense and there is no better player to do that than Warren. He’s the best tight end in the country and has played well in the playoff, but has not had a signature moment. I think he gets one against the Irish. I’ll say he goes for over 100 yards and scores the game-winning touchdown with less than a minute left on a run after lining up at quarterback.
The last word
Penn State head coach James Franklin on he and Notre Dame Marcus Freeman having a chance to be the first Black head coach in college football to make a national title game:
“It just kind of makes me think of when Tony Dungy and Lovie Smith played in Super Bowl XLI in 2007. That was the first Super Bowl featuring a Black head coach at all, let alone two. You know, obviously Dungy became the first Black coach to win a Super Bowl, which was significant. I remember thinking that as a coach, how significant that was in the profession and how significant that was for young coaches coming up in the profession to see those guys in that role.
I also remember, I was offensive coordinator at Kansas State at the time and working for an African American coach in Ron Prince. I also remember at that time, there was a lot of conversations about will this impact the profession. Will this impact opportunities for guys. Earned opportunities for guys. And at that time there was six coaches, African American coaches out of 127 schools at that time, 127 schools. And you know, I think if you look at it with Sylvester Croom, Karl Dorrell, Turner Gill, Randy Shannon, Ron Prince, who I coached for at the time ... Tyrone Willingham was the other one. And there was conversations about how will this impact [opportunities]. ... There’s 16 coaches now out of 134 and I know some people will say, that’s not a huge increase. But it is an increase.
At the end of the day, does this create opportunities for more guys to get in front of athletic directors? Does this create more opportunities for search firms? I hope so. I think at the end of the day, you just want an opportunity and want to be able to earn it through your work and through your actions.
So we’ll see. I take a lot of pride in it. I think you guys know there’s been some conversations in the past, I kept private for a long time. But you know, I take a lot of pride in it. I’m honored. I’m honored to be able to compete against Marcus. I’m honored to be able to compete against Notre Dame.
Most importantly, I’m honored to represent Penn State and the young men in that locker room. For me to sit here and say that it’s not important and it’s not significant would not be accurate. It would not be accurate.”
