Penn State vs. Michigan State: Will the Nittany Lions get a Big Ten win?
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Penn State must beat Michigan State to avoid a winless Big Ten season.
- Defense must pressure MSU quarterbacks and limit Nick Marsh's impact.
- Grunkemeyer has three games to show arm strength and earn consideration.
Penn State heads on the road Saturday in search of its first Big Ten win of the season The Nittany Lions will play the Michigan State Spartans in Week 12 of the college football season in the program’s seventh Big Ten game of the year. Here are some final thoughts and predictions ahead of the matchup.
Will Grunkemeyer take a step forward?
The odds are against redshirt freshman quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer being Penn State’s starting quarterback next season, but there’s still a chance he improves and makes his case for the job. The Nittany Lions will almost assuredly bring in a quarterback from the transfer portal after they hire their new head coach, but Grunkemeyer still has three games to prove he can be the next Penn State quarterback. He hasn’t been great through his first few games, but all of those came against elite defenses in Iowa, Ohio State and Indiana. Grunkemeyer has continually improved over those games, and he’s done so in an offense that wasn’t very good even with senior Drew Allar at quarterback.
The redshirt freshman could do wonders for his stock if he finishes strong against Michigan State, Nebraska and Rutgers — which will still help even if he decides to leave for the portal himself. Grunkemeyer needs to continue taking more chances down the field when they’re called by offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, and has to prove he has the arm strength to make all of the throws necessary in a big-time offense. There’s no guarantee he does that, but this will be his first opportunity against a bad defense — one that should allow him to show what he can do despite being so young and inexperienced.
Can the defense build off a strong performance?
If Penn State is going to get to bowl eligibility, it’s going to need its defense to play like it did for most of the Indiana game. The group was able to consistently get pressure on IU quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who just happens to be one of the best in the country at his position and made them pay anyway. Michigan State doesn’t have anyone at quarterback who can make the Nittany Lions pay like Mendoza did, and really only has one player (wide receiver Nick Marsh) that should frighten the defense. Stopping him should be the focus of the PSU game plan, and if that gets taken care of, then everything else should fall into place.
Slowing down Marsh should allow Penn State to get pressure against a bad MSU offense that doesn’t have a set starter at quarterback right now. Alessio Milivojevic started against Minnesota, but is still competing with Aidan Chiles for the start this week. Regardless of who starts, this offense has been bad all year — and Penn State’s defense showed it can still play at a high level last week. Now it will have to prove it can keep building off that performance.
Will the Nittany Lions break through?
It’s make-or-break time. If Penn State loses this game, the odds of it finishing with a winless Big Ten season and a 3-9 overall record drastically increase, because this Michigan State team might be the worst in the conference. But that doesn’t mean the Nittany Lions are guaranteed a win. Their letdown loss to Oregon is what started this tailspin and immediately resulted in a loss to a UCLA team that was a complete disaster to that point in the season. The Nittany Lions need to learn from that after another letdown loss — this time to Indiana — if it wants to get a win.
It should be fairly obvious right away if Penn State has learned that lesson. If it comes out and plays well — or even takes a lead — early against the Spartans, then a bowl is back on the table and the Nittany Lions will have a chance to salvage something out of this season. But if they start slowly like they did against UCLA, then it could be a sign that this team has decided it has nothing to play for after losing all three of its biggest games to Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana.
Final predictions
Penn State 27, Michigan State 13: This is Penn State’s best chance to get a conference win this season. Michigan State is an unmitigated disaster and I think there’s a chance the Nittany Lions are the final straw for MSU head coach Jonathan Smith, who remains on the hot seat. There’s a chance this turns into a blowout, but the Penn State offense has struggled enough this season to give me pause. That being said, the Nittany Lions should be celebrating their first win over a Power Four opponent when the clock strikes zero on Saturday.
MVP: Penn State running back Nick Singleton. Singleton finally got back on track with some explosive runs and a big game against Indiana, and this should be his chance to build off that. I imagine the Nittany Lions will be leaning on both of their star backs — Singleton and Kaytron Allen — against the Spartans, but it’s Singleton who should be able to break off the big gains. I’ll say he finishes with 104 rushing yards, 37 receiving yards and two touchdowns — one rushing and one receiving — in his best game of the season.
The last word
Penn State interim head coach Terry Smith on his daughter Haley:
“Yeah, Haley is my everything. She’s my forever child. She’s like the glue to our entire family. If the world had what she possesses we wouldn’t have any of these issues going on in the world. We wouldn’t have war, a shut down government, things like that.
She has unconditional love. She doesn’t care that we lose or win. Every day I get the same hug and greeting when I walk through the door as if it’s the first time she’s ever seen me. So that strength, it re-encourages me and lifts me up and helps me through the day and lets me know this is just a game.”
