How will Penn State wrestlers fare at Big Ten championships? Here’s our predictions.

Could this be the year that Penn State brings back the Big Ten team title?

For the past two seasons, the Nittany Lions have played second fiddle to Ohio State at Big Tens. Ultimately, however, they instead earned the top prize of their second- and third-straight NCAA titles.

Many, including Penn State’s own wrestlers, have wondered why they can win the national title but not the conference. So how will the Nittany Lions fare this weekend — who will exceed expectations and who will fall short?

Here are our predictions and projections this weekend:

125 Pounds: Devin Schnupp (No. 12 seed)

Cobler’s predicted finish: 10th

Cobler’s outlook: Schnupp was able to get his first Big Ten dual win earlier this year. Because he was listed as the No. 12 seed, he would technically only need to beat three other guys to get the Big Ten’s ninth automatic qualifying spot for the NCAA championships. However, that first Big Ten dual win came against Indiana’s backup, who isn’t in the tournament. I think Schnupp will get two wins, thus ending his season and possibly the last time he’s the 125-pound starter for Penn State.

Muthler’s predicted finish: 10th

Muthler’s outlook: Penn State 157-pounder Jason Nolf said Monday his goal for the team is to get all 10 wrestlers to the NCAA tournament — and then 10 national champs. To accomplish the first part of that goal, Schnupp will have the steepest climb. But seeded 12th with nine automatic bids, qualifying isn’t entirely out of the question. To do so, however, Schnupp will have to wrestle at a different level than he has so far during his Penn State career. He’ll start off with a rematch with Illinois’ Travis Piotrowski, who pinned him in 1 minute and 3 seconds a few weeks ago. A loss there will likely set him up with a winnable match against Rutgers’ Shane Metzler in consolations. But in order to get one of the coveted top nine spots, Schnupp will have to steal one from the likes of Purdue’s Devin Schroeder (who topped Schnupp 6-1) and Ohio State’s Malik Heinselman (who beat Schnupp 7-4). Penn State wrestlers have been known to turn things up a notch in the postseason, but we have yet to see that from Schnupp.

133 Pounds: Roman Bravo-Young (No. 4 seed)

Cobler’s predicted finish: 4th

Cobler’s outlook: This is, by far, the hardest and deepest weight class in the conference. It also happens to be the same for the entire country. It is literally a guessing game of where Bravo-Young can finish. He has just one signature win, which came against Ohio State’s Luke Pletcher. The freshman was well on his way to beating Iowa State’s Austin Gomez before getting thrown and pinned. So, the real question is, just how good is Bravo-Young? What I do believe is, depending on how well Bravo-Young does here will determine if he can be an All-American in Pittsburgh in two weeks.

Muthler’s predicted finish: 3rd

Muthler’s outlook: Bravo-Young told reporters Monday that as a true freshman, wrestling at the Big Ten tournament for the first time, he has nothing to lose. With his “let-it-fly attitude,” there’s good reason Bravo-Young has more intrigue surrounding him heading into the Big Ten tournament than any other Nittany Lion wrestler. The true freshman has shown flashes of greatness throughout the season, but has not had a chance to face top-tiered wrestlers. The highest-ranked wrestler he saw this season was then-No. 6 Luke Pletcher, whom he beat 2-1 in a tiebreaker period. He’ll likely face the Buckeye again in the quarterfinals. The first time back on the mat after injury, Bravo-Young wrestled at a slow pace, matching that which is characteristic of Pletcher’s style. Now that he says he’s back to full health, I think we’ll see a much more active Bravo-Young in that match. But a win there will set up a semifinal with top-ranked Stevan Micic. I believe Micic will prove to be a bit too much for Bravo-Young this time around, but he’ll bounce back in consolations the way he did after a disappointing loss at the Southern Scuffle, and top Iowa’s Austin DeSanto for third.

141 Pounds: Nick Lee (No. 2 seed)

Cobler’s predicted finish: Champion

Cobler’s outlook: Next to Bravo-Young, trying to figure out Lee’s finish was difficult. It’s not because of the weight class but more what kind of Lee is going to wrestle. Will it be the Lee that lost to Wisconsin’s Tristan Moran or the Lee that beat Ohio State’s Joey McKenna? I went back and forth from champion to third place. I feel it is both of those matches that laid the blueprint for Lee’s season. He will more than likely get McKenna in the semifinals. He will avenge last season’s loss again and avenge another in the finals by beating Illinois’ Mike Carr.

Muthler’s predicted finish: Champion

Muthler’s outlook: For Penn State fans, 141 pounds will be one of the more interesting weight classes to watch. Lee has certainly looked much improved this season, but how much so will be revealed this weekend — especially with potential rematches against two opponents who beat him last year in Illinois’ Mike Carr and Ohio State’s Joey McKenna. Lee already owns one win over McKenna this season, when he outpaced him to a 7-6 decision in Columbus. If Lee can pull out the W again against McKenna in the Big Ten semifinals, there shouldn’t be any reason to leave Lee’s name out of the finalist conversation for nationals. With Lee’s improvement in the bottom position and on finishing his shots (his downfall in his lone loss this season, to Wisconsin’s Tristan Moran), on top of his nonstop motor, the Penn State sophomore will be a difficult force to stop this weekend and could very well end up a Big Ten champ.

149 Pounds: Brady Berge (No. 6 seed)

Cobler’s predicted finish: 4th

Cobler’s predicted finish: For the first time in three years, the Nittany Lions are not the favorite to win this weight class. They might not even get a NCAA qualifier for this weight, which is just absurd to think. The Big Ten is only getting six automatic qualifiers, and if Berge can’t lock up one of those six, he probably won’t get a wild card since he doesn’t have a ton of matches. The redshirt freshman from Minnesota received the No. 6 seed, which puts him on the bubble. I’m going to say Berge finishes fourth and gets an automatic spot, but I could see him finishing one spot higher too.

Muthler’s predicted finish: 4th

Muthler’s outlook: Aside from Schnupp, the Penn State wrestler with the biggest risk of not qualifying is Berge. Seeded sixth with six automatic bids, the redshirt freshman won’t have a lot of room for error. A potential quarterfinal match against Iowa’s Pat Lugo should be interesting. The Edinboro transfer has had a lot of ups and downs this season. At 15-6 on the season, Lugo has a win over Oklahoma State’s two-time Southern Scuffle champ Kaden Gfeller and a major decision over Minnesota’s Tommy Thorn. But he also has losses to CSU-Bakersfield’s Russell Rohlfing and Iowa State’s Jarrett Degen. (Berge beat Degen 7-4 at the Scuffle.) As he only wrestled about half the duals this season, splitting time with teammate Jarod Verkleeren, there’s still a lot to learn about Berge and his potential. Lugo is certainly a winnable match and would be a nice confidence-booster for Berge going into the NCAAs. Wrestling back in his home state of Minnesota, I’ll give Berge the slight edge. Ohio State’s Micah Jordan could be a bump in Berge’s road, but I think he’d be able to win enough matches on the backside to finish fourth, two ahead of his initial seed.

157 Pounds: Jason Nolf (No. 1 seed)

Cobler’s predicted finish: Champion

Cobler’s outlook: One does not have to take a guess on Nolf’s finish. The senior has been nothing but dominant all season long. He has done so by putting on a show with moves some people have never seen. Let’s not forget about his Rec Hall finale. It should prove a lesson. You mess with a bull, you’re going to get its horns. Nolf finishes off his final Big Ten tournament with just his second crown. This class it is just a battle for second.

Muthler’s predicted finish: Champion

Muthler’s outlook: With nine allocations and 11 wrestlers ranked by InterMat, 157 is one of the deepest weight classes in the Big Ten. That’s no problem for Nolf, who beat soundly each of his highest seeded opponents so far this season, the closest being a 10-4 decision against Tyler Berger. And the scary part? Nolf told reporters Monday he’s “improved a lot” since then. Nolf shouldn’t have any problems getting through the first part of his bracket and coming out on top in a likely semifinals matchup with Michigan’s reigning Big Ten champ Alec Pantaleo. Whomever Nolf faces in the finals, whether it’s Berger, Northwestern’s Ryan Deakin or any other opponent, it’s hard to see any outcome other than the senior coming away with his second Big Ten title.

165 Pounds: Vincenzo Joseph (No. 1 seed)

Cobler’s predicted finish: Champion

Cobler’s outlook: Joseph has been a silent assassin. He doesn’t have the flash as some of his teammates in his wins. He just goes to work, does what he has to do and walks off the mat with gratitude. With the pre-seeds holding true, Joseph should cruise to the finals with no problems. If I was a betting man, I’d say Big Ten fans will get to see Joseph vs. Wisconsin’s Evan Wick in the finals, a match that didn’t come to fruition during the regular season. Yes, Joseph has two NCAA titles, but the one thing that has eluded him has been a Big Ten crown. It all changes this year. What better momentum to ride back to his hometown area of Pittsburgh for the NCAA championships?

Muthler’s predicted finish: Champion

Muthler’s outlook: The graduation of Illinois’ Isaiah Martinez didn’t help much with clearing out the talent in this loaded weight class, which, if not for this year’s 133-pound class, would likely be talked about as one of the toughest in the country. Unlike Nolf, Joseph’s margins of victory against the higher-seeded guys in his weight class are a bit tighter — topping No. 5-seed Logan Massa and No. 4-seed Isaiah White by just two points each. He did not wrestle No. 2-seed Alex Marinelli or No. 3-seed Evan Wick this season. But wrestling close matches is Joseph’s M.O. He feeds off the excitement of those moments, which should play into his advantage in a potential rematch with either Massa or White in the semifinals, and against Marinelli or Wick in the finals. Having already beaten Wick twice this season, Marinelli is the favorite to face Joseph in the finals. “The Bull,” as he’s called by fans, just capped off his second undefeated regular season and owns a 1-0 advantage over Joseph. But Joseph, who’s diversified his arsenal quite a bit this year, should do what he does best and figure out a way to win — as long as he keeps from going upper body.

174 Pounds: Mark Hall (No. 1 seed)

Cobler’s predicted finish: Champion

Cobler’s outlook: Please see 157 pounds above. Consider the Big Ten championships the first stop on Hall’s ride to the NCAA championship finals. He has been quietly dominant and showed earlier in the year that he wasn’t going to be beaten this season after the NCAA finals loss to Arizona State’s Zahid Valencia last year. Now, was the Rec Hall crowd the real reason he beat Valencia, or did he really make the necessary changes to make himself unbeatable? I don’t see Hall having problems repeating as the 174-pound champ for the conference.

Muthler’s predicted finish: Champion

Muthler’s outlook: The highlight of the Big Ten’s 174-pound weight class is, without question, the potential for a Hall vs. Myles Amine rematch. Neither should have any trouble getting to the finals, setting up the fourth meeting between the pair. Hall has won all three prior meetings, but none by more than a point. An added layer of interest here is what an Amine win could mean for NCAA seedings and where he, Hall, Daniel Lewis and Valencia would fall in the pecking order. However, Amine has not yet been able to crack the top-two spots at 174, and Hall, wrestling just a half-hour from the high school where he won five state titles, isn’t likely to let it happen in his backyard.

184 Pounds: Shakur Rasheed (No. 2 seed)

Cobler’s predicted finish: 2nd

Cobler’s outlook: Rasheed seems like a man on a mission after speaking with the media on Monday. He’s got the ability to reach the 184-pound finals, but I just don’t think he is healthy enough to compete with Ohio State’s Myles Martin. Rasheed won’t have an easy time like some of his teammates on way to the finals either. He could very easily lose to Nebraska’s Taylor Venz in the semifinals. The pair didn’t get to square off in the dual earlier this season as Rasheed was out with an injury. Instead, it was Mason Manville that took on Venz, who won 7-1. Rasheed says he is healthy and good to go for the tournament, but I could easily see him getting to where he has an automatic spot locked up and medically forfeits out to rest up for the NCAA championships. Time will tell.

Muthler’s predicted finish: 3rd

Muthler’s outlook: The pressure Rasheed said he felt at last year’s tournament to score bonus points and prove to his coaches, fans and himself that they made the right decision choosing him over teammate Anthony Cassar is gone. This time, the two friends get to compete together, and Rasheed said the only thing on his mind is going out and having fun. With that attitude, people can be sure to see a lot of action and quick pins from the senior. However, his injury and the lack of energy he showed in the Michigan match on Feb. 1 gives some cause for concern. And because he missed half the duals this season and is in a new weight class, he’s not yet had the chance to feel out some of the top contenders at 184 pounds, like Ohio State’s Myles Martin, Nebraska’s Taylor Venz and Illinois’ Emery Parker. With those challenges, I can see Rasheed losing to Venz in the semifinals, then wrestling back for third.

197 Pounds: Bo Nickal (No. 1 seed)

Cobler’s predicted finish: Champion

Cobler’s outlook: Of all the Nittany Lions that I feel will be in the title matches, Nickal will have the second-toughest opponent in Ohio State’s Kollin Moore. Now, it’s quite possible that Moore doesn’t make the finals as he could get matched up with Iowa’s Jacob Warner, and Moore hasn’t showed that he can have the most success in the postseason. See Moore’s 2018 NCAA championships, where he was pinned by Kent State’s Kyle Conel in the quarterfinals. Yes, Moore is the defending Big Ten champion, but I don’t see Nickal being denied his third Big Ten title, second straight after winning 184 last year, to finish his historic career.

Muthler’s predicted finish: Champion

Muthler’s outlook: Nickal is so heavily favored at 197 pounds this year that people aren’t questioning whether or not he’ll win, but whether he can pin his way through the tournament. With 15 pins so far this season, that idea shouldn’t be too far-fetched. Nickal will likely be on a collision course with No. 2-seed Kollin Moore, of Ohio State, with both wrestlers vying to become three-time conference champs. Last time the two hit, it didn’t end too well for the Buckeye, who was pinned in 1:38. It’s not easy to pin a high-caliber opponent twice, but with the Hodge Trophy in his sights, Nickal will most certainly try. And with half of his 112 wins ending in pins, he has a pretty high success rate.

285 pounds: Anthony Cassar (No. 2 seed)

Cobler’s predicted finish: 2nd

Cobler’s outlook: Did you see my comment about Nickal and the second-toughest finals opponent? Yeah, Cassar will have the toughest in freshman phenom Gable Steveson of the host school in Minnesota. Steveson was set to redshirt this season, but the Golden Gophers decided otherwise and pulled it for the November dual against Oklahoma State. Steveson has done nothing but win and win big. He has competed in just five matches where he didn’t score bonus points. In that Oklahoma State dual, he only topped the Cowboys’ Derek White 8-2. White beat Cassar in the Southern Scuffle finals 3-2. This is the matchup that I’m looking forward to.

Muthler’s predicted finish: 2nd

Muthler’s outlook: Saturday will mark the Big Ten tournament debuts for both the top-two seeds at heavyweight in Cassar and Minnesota’s No. 1-seed Gable Steveson. The difference: Steveson is a true freshman, and Cassar a fifth-year senior. Having been held back with injures, and then losing out on a trip to the postseason last year at 197 pounds to close friend and teammate Rasheed, this weekend will be Cassar’s first — and possibly last (he’s applying for a sixth year) — chance to become a Big Ten champ. On the other hand, Steveson, who many people have been projecting would become a four-time national champ since he was still at Apple Valley High School, is undefeated as a true freshman and hasn’t given anyone any doubt he can accomplish that feat. All the hype going into this match is in Steveson’s favor, but Cassar has been in this position before. He qualified for the New Jersey state tournament for the first time as a senior — and then won. Regardless of the outcome, the pitting of two athletic heavyweights together should make for some high-paced action and a lot of takedowns. However, Steveson has beaten some of the best wrestlers in the world as a three-time age-level world champ and will be wrestling in front of his home crowd in Minnesota. The true freshman might prove to be too much for Cassar this time around.

Follow Muthler and Cobler on Twitter for weekend long updates from the Big Ten Championships.

This story was originally published March 8, 2019 at 5:47 PM.