Most to gain? Likely upsets? Here’s a Penn State viewers’ guide for the Big Ten wrestling tournament

In the words of Penn State’s 141-pounder Nick Lee, we’ve reached “the fun part” of the wrestling season.

Before reaching the NCAA tournament in Pittsburgh on March 21-23, the Nittany Lions are making a stop in Minneapolis to fight for the chance to be named Big Ten champions.

With so much going on at once in tournament-style competition over the two-day event, here’s what Penn State fans should know — and here’s where fans should follow along online and on TV — about the Nittany Lions ahead of the Big Ten wrestling tournament:

Storyline to watch: Can Penn State reclaim the Big Ten title after a two-year absence?

There are plenty of individual storylines here — Can an injured Shakur Rasheed rebound after last year’s subpar tournament? Will two-time national champ Vincenzo Joseph finally win a conference title? How will Anthony Cassar fare in his first-ever conference tourney? — but, let’s be honest, we all know the big team storyline: Can Penn State finally win a Big Ten title?

The Nittany Lions lost to the Buckeyes each of the last two years but still went on to win the national title. Three of Penn State’s wrestlers were asked Monday why this tournament seems to give them more trouble than NCAAs — and they all just shook their head and said they didn’t know. It is kind of puzzling.

Defending Big Ten champ Mark Hall did give it some more thought after initially saying he had “no idea,” however.

“I would say the Big Ten’s tough matches come a lot quicker,” he said. “NCAAs, typically, the first two rounds, guys like Bo (Nickal) and Jason (Nolf), they can get pretty quick falls. But (at Big Tens) you have one match and you’re in the semis, where you’re wrestling the top guy in the country — that’s how good the Big Ten is.”

If Penn State wants to win the Big Ten this season, it’ll need bonus points from guys like Rasheed, along with newcomers Cassar, Brady Berge and Roman Bravo-Young. It’s clear Penn State is the best team in the country right now — it’s the unanimous No. 1 in the newest NWCA poll — but it was also the best the last two years, too.

The good news for Penn State fans? This is as healthy as the Nittany Lions have been in a Big Ten tournament since the last time they won.

Opponents most likely to upset Nittany Lions: Iowa’s Alex Marinelli, Ohio State’s Joey McKenna and Nebraska’s Taylor Venz

Any wrestler wearing a blue and white singlet automatically has a target on his back. When the Nittany Lions step foot into Williams Arena on Saturday, undoubtedly, every other wrestler there will be gunning to take them down.

The Penn State opponent with the biggest opportunity to knock off a former national champ is Iowa’s Alex Marinelli. As one of the few potential matchups between two undefeated wrestlers, this one will certainly be fun to watch. Marinelli topped Joseph last season in the pair’s only previous matchup and has shown marked improvements this season.

If any other team wants a shot at winning the team race over Penn State, this one’s a must-win for Marinelli.

Having beaten Ohio State’s Joey McKenna earlier in the season, then not getting the chance to wrestle Mike Carr at Illinois, Penn State’s Nick Lee was pre-seeded No. 2, with Carr above him and McKenna below. That sets up a pretty tough semifinal bout for the Nittany Lion. The sophomore’s pace proved to be the difference in his victory in Columbus, but McKenna’s strength and size will always prove to be a difficult matchup..

If the pre-seeds hold and Shakur Rasheed remains No. 2 at 184 pounds, he could be vulnerable to upsets. Having only wrestled half of the duals this season and in a new weight class, many of his opponents will be new to him. The potential matchup against Nebraska’s Taylor Venz in the semifinals could be tricky for Penn State’s wrestler, particularly coming off of injury.

Penn State wrestler most likely to finish higher than his pre-seed: Brady Berge (149 pounds)

With 70 percent of Penn State’s starting lineup earning either the No. 1 or No. 2 pre-seeds, the options for this answer are narrowed down to No. 12 pre-seed at 125 Devin Schnupp, No. 6 pre-seed at 149 Brady Berge or No. 4 pre-seed at 141 Roman Bravo-Young. Although Schnupp might have the most opportunity, either Berge or Bravo-Young realistically have more potential to place higher than his respective seed.

If the pre-seeds hold, Bravo-Young will have a tough draw. He’d likely get a rematch with Ohio State’s Luke Pletcher, whom he had beaten earlier in a tiebreaker, Saturday morning to set up a quarterfinal against Michigan’s top-ranked Stevan Micic. Should he lose, he’ll be thrown into a consolation bracket full of potential landmines. In a weight class with three former NCAA finalists, it’s hard not to run into somebody really good.

Berge’s draw will be a little less difficult. There’s a clear No. 1 in Rutgers’ two-time Big Ten champ Anthony Ashnault, but after that, there’s certainly room to shake things up. Besides, if the seeds hold, Berge will be on the opposite side of the bracket from the Scarlet Knight.

Penn State wrestler most likely to finish lower than his pre-seed: Shakur Rasheed (184 pounds)

Despite having been injured and sitting out for half of Penn State’s duals this season, Shakur Rasheed earned the No. 2 pre-seed at 184 pounds, as the only wrestler aside from Ohio State’s No. 1 Myles Martin to go undefeated this season.

However, because of his injury, Rasheed missed out on wrestling in key matchups against such competitors as Martin, Nebraska’s Taylor Venz and Illinois’ Emery Parker. In the one match he did wrestle in the middle of his string of absences — against Michigan’s Jelani Embree — he gassed after his first takedown and barely came out with the win.

After that match, head coach Cael Sanderson told reporters that it wasn’t so much Rasheed’s injury as it was his conditioning that was holding him back. When he returned to the mat three weeks later against Buffalo, Rasheed was back in pinning form. But having only spent 1 minute and 16 second on the mat before getting the fall, it was hard to get a good idea of where his conditioning is at.

Regardless of how he’s feeling now, having missed the opportunity to feel out some of those better wrestlers in his weight class might end up hurting Rasheed in the long run. And the fact he’ll also have to wrestle in a brace can’t help.

Wrestler with the most to gain: Roman Bravo-Young

Even though the 133-pound weight class is widely viewed as the toughest in the nation — and in the Big Ten — Bravo-Young surprisingly has not wrestled many ranked opponents yet this season.

He’s only wrestled two fellow opponents ranked in the top 10 in the latest NCAA coaches poll (beating Ohio State’s Luke Pletcher and losing to Iowa State’s Austin Gomez), and neither of the three wrestlers — Stevan Micic, Austin DeSanto or Nick Suriano — who are pre-seeded above him in the Big Ten.

Bravo-Young, who told reporters earlier this week that he has “nothing to lose,” has everything to gain. The true freshman can make or break his NCAA seed with his performance this weekend. With his lightning-quick speed, Bravo-Young has all the tools necessary to add his name to the list of NCAA finalist contenders — if he has a strong showing this weekend.

Matchups we’re hoping for the most: Joseph-Marinelli, Cassar-Steveson and Lee-Carr or Lee-McKenna

There are three answers here, and any of these potential matches should be incredibly entertaining: Vincenzo Joseph vs. Iowa’s Alex Marinelli at 165 pounds, Anthony Cassar vs. Minnesota’s Gable Steveson at heavyweight and Nick Lee vs. either Illinois’ Michael Carr or Ohio State’s Joey McKenna at 141 pounds.

Joseph-Marinelli has to be at the top of the list, however. Joseph is ranked as the third-best wrestler in Division I — behind only teammates Jason Nolf and Bo Nickal — based on the NCAA’s Most Dominant Wrestler standings. The fourth-best? Marinelli. Joseph is 21-0 with bonus points in 17 of those bouts, while Marinelli is 20-0 with 14 bonus-point victories.

Cassar-Steveson is intriguing in its own right. Neither wrestler has lost a Big Ten match, and Cassar has just dropped one overall bout on the season to Steveson’s zero. The true freshman has established himself as the best in the Big Ten, but Cassar is the Nittany Lions’ most improved wrestler from last season — and it’s way too premature to count the budding star out. He has the potential to surprise, and Steveson should help gauge where expectations should be for nationals.

And Lee vs. Carr or McKenna — well, how can you go wrong there? The earlier Lee-McKenna bout this season, in which Lee won 7-6 after trailing 5-1, was arguably the most memorable Penn State bout of the year. And, with Carr, you can bet Lee wants some revenge after Carr upset him in the Big Ten semifinals last season.