Big Ten Wrestling Championships: Penn State predictions, who to watch

“Ready or not here we come,” said Penn State wrestling coach Cael Sanderson after the Nittany Lions’ final dual of the season Feb. 19 against Clarion in reference to the looming postseason.

It’s unlikely to be a warning for the rest of the Big Ten or the other NCAA teams, but one might think differently.

When it comes to the postseason, Sanderson and Co. like to keep things loose. It couldn’t have been more noticeable by the bundle of balloons tied up on the handrails on both sides of the hallway right before the doors leading to the wrestling room.

Wrestlers like Beau Bartlett, Carter Starocci and Greg Kerkvliet had giant smiles on their faces because they know what time of year it is.

The postseason is here, and it all gets started with the Big Ten Championships on Saturday and Sunday.

Here’s a look at how we think things may turn out inside the Crisler Center in Ann Arbor, Michigan, this weekend:

125 Pounds

Nate Cobler

Outlook: There isn’t really much to say about this weight class as long as Iowa’s Spencer Lee is around, which is only for this year. Everyone is just wrestling for second place here. The real question: Will Gary Steen do enough to steal one of the nine automatic spots the Big Ten has for the weight at NCAAs? He was given the No. 11 preseed, so theoretically he just has to beat two guys. Easier said than done, but that’s why they wrestle the matches, right?

Steen’s predicted finish: no placement

Champion: Lee

Jon Sauber

Outlook: This is a strong class that boasts some of the best wrestlers in the country. That’s true at most weights for the Big Ten, but the depth here is impressive. There’s talent from 1-10 that could all make a run — but there’s still only one wrestler that really has a shot at the conference title. Iowa’s Spencer Lee should run away with this one and will likely do the same at NCAAs. And while 10 of the top 17 wrestlers at 125 pounds in Intermat’s rankings are in the Big Ten, Steen is not one of them. Best case scenario is a single victory after losing in the opening round. Even that might be up in the air for Steen, who has struggled this year. Fortunately for Penn State, this is not a weight where it’s gotten much production in recent years, but that hasn’t stopped the Nittany Lions from winning championships.

Steen’s predicted finish: no placement

Champion: Lee

133 Pounds

Cobler

Outlook: Remember what I said about 125 pounds? Yeah, the same can be said here with Roman Bravo-Young still around. If the preseeds hold true, he could get a matchup with his former roommate and teammate in Iowa’s Brody Teske in the quarterfinals. With Austin DeSanto gone, it’s hard not seeing RBY at the top of the podium. Again, everyone else is just wrestling for second.

Bravo-Young’s predicted finish: 1st

Champion: Bravo-Young

Sauber

Outlook: This is another one that seems cut and dry. Roman Bravo-Young is 13-0 for Penn State this season and a potential loss doesn’t seem in the cards in the conference championships — if at all. He’s been dominant for Penn State and a consistent source of bonus points this season, giving him the opportunity to help the team win a conference title in a big way. The rest of the weight class has depth, but none of the top talent to challenge Bravo-Young in a real way. Ohio State’s Jesse Mendez and Illinois’ Lucas Byrd would likely present the biggest challenge, but even they aren’t on his level as the No. 2 and No. 3 preseeds. Michigan’s Dylan Ragusin kept his previous bout with Bravo-Young this year close, but an upset doesn’t seem likely from the No. 5 preseed.

Bravo-Young’s predicted finish: 1st

Champion: Bravo-Young

141 Pounds

Cobler

Outlook: Beau Bartlett said on Monday that his mind is clear coming into this year’s Big Ten Championships. Last year, he focused too much on just getting in the top seven to make NCAAs after going 1-2 the year previous at the Big Tens. He ended up finishing seventh last year and got into the NCAAs by the skin of his teeth. He’s the No. 2 preseed this year and should have no problems making the semifinals, where he could face Nebraska’s Brock Hardy. Hardy could present some problems for Bartlett if it lines up that way.

Bartlett’s predicted finish: 3rd

Champion: Iowa’s Real Woods

Sauber

Outlook: This is one of the most interesting classes of the weekend from Penn State’s perspective. Bartlett enters as the No. 2 preseed but he’s also only faced No. 1 seed Real Woods from Iowa among the other top six seeds. He will likely have to take on Nebraska’s Brock Hardy in the semifinals, which will be a legitimate test for the Nittany Lion. If he gets past him, Woods looms as the favorite for good reason, but he has his own tough road. Purdue’s Parker Filius is the No. 8 preseed, despite being No. 13 in the country according to Intermat. His under-seeding could be to Bartlett’s benefit if he can pull off an upset against Woods. That being said, Woods is the top seed for a reason and is still Bartlett’s most likely opponent. But things don’t always go as intended, especially in a top-heavy weight class like 141 pounds.

Bartlett’s predicted finish: 3rd

Champion: Hardy

149 Pounds

Cobler

Outlook: Shayne Van Ness is one of four Penn State wrestlers getting to experience their first Big Ten Championships. He’s the No. 5 preseed, so if he wants to make the finals, he’ll have to more than likely take out the No. 1 seed in Ohio State’s Sammy Sasso. However, to get to Sasso, Van Ness will have to get past the No. 4 preseed in Iowa’s Max Murin. He wrestled the pair in back-to-back weeks, and lost by three to each of them. Can he get past them this time?

Van Ness’ predicted finish: 3rd

Champion prediction: Sasso

Sauber

Outlook: Another weight, another stacked group. The injury Wisconsin’s Austin Gomez suffered in late January against Northwestern could throw a wrench into things, but if he’s healthy he should be the favorite. That being said, a medical forfeit after the start of his first match could be on the table. If that’s what happens, this class opens up a bit more. Ohio State’s Sammy Sasso and Northwestern’s Yahya Thomas could potentially meet in the finals as the co-favorites if Gomez can’t go, but there’s enough depth for an upset at the weight — even potentially coming from Penn State. Van Ness is currently set for a rematch with Murin if they both make the quarterfinals, with the winner likely meeting Sasso in the semis. Both are capable of making life difficult for the Buckeye, but the best bet is that the two co-favorites take care of business.

Van Ness’ predicted finish: 4th

Champion: Thomas

157 Pounds

Cobler

Outlook: Before and after Levi Haines’ redshirt came off, he was wowing fans with his impressive strength and relentless pressure. He enters his first Big Ten Championships on a 15-match win streak with six straight ranked wins in there too. With Haines’ impressive season, that garnered him the No. 2 preseed. He has beaten everyone on his side of the bracket except for two, which he didn’t wrestle at all. Haines will have a tough quarterfinal match should Illinois’ Mike Carr get there as the No. 7 preseed. Haines gets past Carr, which should propel him to the finals.

Haines’ predicted finish: 1st

Champion: Haines

Sauber

Outlook: There was a chance this was going to be one of Penn State’s weaker finishes in the postseason, but once Haines burned his redshirt that idea went out the window. He’s an elite young talent who should be able to make his mark, not just at Big Tens, but at NCAAs too. He has the upside to win both this year, with his biggest competition coming from the same wrestler — Nebraska’s Peyton Robb. Those two are on a collision course to meet in the Big Ten finals, assuming Haines can get past Purdue’s Kendall Coleman. If he does that, it could be the first of two meetings this postseason between the two. While Haines has the opportunity to win the Big Ten title, the edge goes to Robb — at least in the first potential matchup.

Haines’ predicted finish: 2nd

Champion: Robb

165 Pounds

Cobler

Outlook: Much like Van Ness, Alex Facundo will have to go through the No. 1 seed to make the finals as he was the No. 4 preseed. The No. 1 seed is Wisconsin’s Dean Hamiti, who Facundo would’ve wrestled in the dual earlier this year, but Facundo missed that dual. The redshirt freshman will more than likely get Ohio State’s Carson Kharchla in the quarterfinals. Facundo beat the Buckeyes wrestler in the dual, 4-1. Look for Facundo to make the semifinals, but his run ends there.

Facundo’s predicted finish: 3rd

Champion: Hamiti

Sauber

Outlook: As the weight classes wind down here, things will become more cut and dry, but we’re not quite there yet. The Penn State run of champions at upperweights is coming, and it could even start at 165 pounds. Will it? Maybe. Facundo is the No. 4 preseed and has a win over Michigan’s Cameron Amine, the No. 2 preseed, on his resume. He has a loss to No. 3 preseed Patrick Kennedy from Iowa as well, but it’s not possible for him to face both if he’s going to win the title at the weight class. A semifinal matchup with Wisconsin’s Dean Hamiti will be telling for Facundo. If he wins that bout, he’ll have a chance to win the title and make a deep run at NCAAs. Lose, and expectations could be tempered for the Nittany Lion heading into nationals.

Facundo’s predicted finish: 1st

Champion: Facundo

174 Pounds

Cobler

Outlook: This weight class is Carter Starocci’s to lose. He has won 44 straight matches since losing in the Big Ten finals his redshirt freshman year to Iowa’s Michael Kemerer. He could have quite the interesting semifinals match should Illinois’ Edmond Ruth get there as the No. 5 preseed. If the name sounds familiar, it should as Ruth is the younger brother of Nittany Lions’ great Ed Ruth, who was a four-time Big Ten champ and three-time NCAA champ. One thing fans won’t get to see, at least right away, would be Starocci against Indiana’s DJ Washington. Washington is on the opposite side of the bracket, so he’d have to get to the finals to see Starocci if seeds go as planned.

Starocci’s predicted finish: 1st

Champion: Starocci

Sauber

Outlook: And this is where things could really get rolling for Penn State. Starocci should be the overwhelming favorite as the No. 1 seed. He’s undefeated this season and most of his bouts haven’t been close. Yes, Nebraska’s Mikey Labriola could make things difficult as a fellow undefeated at the No. 2 preseed, but he’s still not quite on Starocci’s level. There’s potential intrigue in the semifinals if Edmond Ruth — brother of former Nittany Lion three-time national champion Ed Ruth — can get there as the No. 5 preseed, but even that shouldn’t be much of a test for Starocci. The Nittany Lion should roll at Big Tens and earn the title at 174 pounds.

Starocci’s predicted finish: 1st

Champion: Starocci

184 Pounds

Cobler

Outlook: Aaron Brooks has not seen the mat competitively since Penn State’s dual with Rutgers on Feb. 10. No one but himself and the coaching staff knows why he hasn’t been wrestling. However, since suffering his only loss of the season against Iowa State’s Marcus Coleman in the Collegiate Duals on Dec. 20, the two-time NCAA champion has put up bonus points in four of the past five matches he’s wrestled. If Brooks shows no rust, there isn’t anyone that’s going to beat him this weekend. One wrestler to keep an eye on is Nebraska’s Lenny Pinto, who is a Pennsylvania native and the No. 7 preseed.

Brooks’ predicted finish: 1st

Champion: Brooks

Sauber

Outlook: Brooks hasn’t faced much adversity this season and I don’t think he’ll face much early in the postseason. The No. 1 seed in the class has only one loss — to Iowa State’s Marcus Coleman back in late December — and has found plenty of success against Big Ten opponents this season. Ohio State’s Kaleb Romero, who Brooks could potentially face in the final as the No. 2 preseed, only lost by decision to the Nittany Lion when they faced off last month. That being said, Brooks should earn plenty of bonus points and even if Romero pushes him again, it’s hard to envision the Nittany Lion not winning the Big Ten title.

Brooks’ predicted finish: 1st

Champion: Brooks

197 Pounds

Cobler

Outlook: Max Dean had one rough weekend early in the year. Since then, he hasn’t looked back. The defending NCAA champion had an undefeated mark in the Big Ten portion of the season. His closest win was a 2-0 defeat of Iowa’s Jacob Warner. Dean, who beat Warner in the NCAA finals last year, could see him again in the semifinals, should Warner get past the No. 4 preseed in Michigan State’s Cam Caffey. Ironically, Caffey and Warner were the only Big Ten foes to keep Dean from scoring bonus points in Big Ten duals this year.

Dean’s predicted finish: 1st

Champion: Dean

Sauber

Outlook: Dean enters as the No. 1 seed and not having faced the No. 2 or No. 3 preseed this season. The reality is, however, there should be a gap between Dean and those wrestlers — Nebraska’s Silas Allred and Illinois’ Zac Braunagel. However, that’s not to say this will be as easy for him as it should be for Brooks or Starocci. No. 4 seed Cameron Caffey of Michigan State beat Dean last season in Penn State’s dual with Michigan State and could present problems in the semifinals. Dean hasn’t slipped up much in his two seasons representing the Nittany Lions, but it’s not impossible that it happens at Big Tens. Still, he’s the top seed for a reason.

Dean’s predicted finish: 1st

Champion: Dean

285 Pounds

Cobler

Outlook: In what might be the toughest weight class of the conference, Greg Kerkvliet was awarded the No. 2 preseed. It keeps him away from the No. 1 seed in Michigan’s Mason Parris, who handed Kerkvliet his lone loss of the year when the Penn State wrestler was No. 1 in the country at the time. However, it has Kerkvliet on the same side of the bracket as the No. 3 preseed in Iowa’s Tony Cassioppi. Kerkvliet seems to have Cassioppi’s number as he has beaten him twice this year — once officially and once unofficially. It will come down to those three as Northwestern’s Lucas Davison, who is the No. 4 preseed, isn’t on the same level.

Kerkvliet’s predicted finish: 2nd

Champion: Parris

Sauber

Outlook: Kerkvliet — and the rest of the Big Ten heavyweights — actually have a chance to win a conference title for the first time since 2019. Former Minnesota wrestler Gable Steveson has dominated the class for three seasons in the conference and at nationals, only ever losing in his college career to former Nittany Lion Anthony Cassar. Steveson’s departure from the sport opened the door for Kerkvliet, Michigan’s Mason Parris and Iowa’s Tony Cassioppi to win the conference title this season. Parris enters as the top seed with Kerkvliet and Cassioppi behind him in that order, and as the only undefeated wrestler in the conference at the weight. Kerkvliet had success against Parris at Big Tens and NCAAs last season, but it’s hard to win three in a row against a high-end talent like Parris.

Kerkvliet’s predicted finish: 2nd

Champion: Parris

Team Race

Cobler

Outlook: This is one of the most complete lineups that Sanderson and his staff have had, which is tough to say with previous teams that had wrestlers like Ruth, David Taylor, Quentin Wright, Zain Retherford, Jason Nolf and Bo Nickal. I could keep naming names. Nine of the 10 guys all have a legitimate shot of winning a Big Ten title, which, if that were to occur, would only be the second time in Big Ten history — Iowa in 1983 is the only time. Should all six of my finalists win titles, Penn State will become just the third team to accomplish that feat joining Iowa and Michigan State.

Champion: Penn State

Sauber

Outlook: To put it plainly, Penn State should run away with the team conference title. Yes, getting no help from 125 pounds will hurt, but it won’t matter in the end. The Nittany Lions are extremely well-positioned to send nine wrestlers to NCAAs with many of them having a legitimate chance to win their weight class at Big Tens. Odds are the program comes away with at least three titles in Ann Arbor, with two more that are likely and a couple more that I would classify as possible. Even if they only win three, the Nittany Lions should lock up yet another Big Ten title.

Champion: Penn State

Big Ten Championships

When: Session 1, 10 a.m. Saturday; Session 2, 5:30 p.m. Saturday; Session 3, 1 p.m. Sunday; Session 4, 4:30 p.m. Sunday

Where: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, Mich.

Television: Big Ten Network (10 a.m. & 7:30 p.m., Saturday; 4:30 p.m., Sunday)

Radio: WAPY (103.1 FM)

Online: Radio, Lionvision at GoPSUsports.com; Video, Big Ten+

Brackets: Trackwrestling

Twitter: @byncobler, @pennstatewrest

This story was originally published March 2, 2023 at 11:34 AM.

Nate Cobler

Centre Daily Times

814-231-4609

Nate Cobler is a part-time reporter covering all things wrestling, either Penn State or Centre County’s high schools, for the Centre Daily Times. He’ll also cover other sports too. When he isn’t writing about sports, he is working for a local mortgage broker, Providence Mortgage Group.

Jon Sauber

Centre Daily Times

(814) 231-6461

Jon Sauber covers Penn State football and men’s basketball for the Centre Daily Times. He earned his B.A. in digital and print journalism from Penn State and his M.A. in sports journalism from IUPUI. His previous stops include jobs at The Indianapolis Star, the NCAA, and Rivals.