Does Ohio State have enough to top shorthanded Penn State wrestling? Here’s our take
The end of the regular season is drawing near for Penn State’s wrestling squad.
The Nittany Lions have a pair of Big Ten road duals this weekend against No. 8 Ohio State (7 p.m. Friday) and No. 13 Illinois (2 p.m. Saturday).
The match with the Buckeyes could have had all 10 bouts where ranked wrestlers face off. However, Penn State could see Braeden Davis, who has missed the past two duals, and Tyler Kasak, who suffered an injury default loss against Maryland on Sunday, out of the lineup. Ohio State’s Paddy Gallagher and Sammy Sasso are also expected to not compete.
Here are our predictions on if the Buckeyes could top the Nittany Lions:
125 pounds: No. 7 Luke Lilledahl (13-1) vs. No. 21 Brendan McCrone (18-7)
Nate Cobler: As the season has progressed for Lilledahl, he has shown that he’ll be a contender for a Big Ten and NCAA title at this weight class. The true freshman started the year winning his first 11 collegiate matches. Then he suffered a loss to Rutgers’ Dean Peterson, but has tallied bonus points in every match after that loss. McCrone isn’t too much older than Lilledahl, but he has suffered some questionable losses. Prediction: Lilledahl by decision.
Jon Sauber: Lilledahl looks like he has a chance to outperform his No. 7 ranking when the postseason rolls around, after rolling against inferior competition this season. The Nittany Lion freshman has wrestled well since falling to Peterson in late January. McCrone has earned some decent wins this season — namely a recent major decision over Minnesota’s Cooper Flynn, who is No. 13 at the weight — but has generally struggled against top competition. This should be another bonus point win for Lilledahl. Prediction: Lilledahl by major decision.
133 pounds: No. 8 Braeden Davis (8-2)/Kyison Garcia (2-2) vs. No. 11 Nic Bouzakis (18-5)
Cobler: It’s hard to say if Davis makes the call for the Nittany Lions because the postseason is right around the corner, so coach Cael Sanderson may opt to have him rest. Davis has missed the last two duals while trying to recover from a right leg injury he suffered in the season-opening dual with Drexel. Garcia filled in admirably in the shutout of Michigan last Friday picking up a 4-1 victory. On Sunday, he suffered a 9-1 major decision loss against Maryland. Look for Garcia to get the call again, which means points for the Buckeyes’ Bouzakis. Prediction: Bouzakis by major decision.
Sauber: Davis’ status is up in the air, but if he goes I think he gets the win in Columbus. That being said, he hasn’t wrestled his last two matches, and the Nittany Lions still have some wiggle room with two more duals before the postseason if they want to get him back on the mat before the end of the regular season. Garcia did well against Michigan, but Bouzakis is not likely to fall to the Penn State backup. This one is tough to predict because of the lineup uncertainty, but I’ll lean toward Davis sitting out. Prediction: Bouzakis by major decision.
141 pounds: No. 3 Beau Bartlett (15-0) vs. No. 1 Jesse Mendez (23-0)
Cobler: This is the one that everyone wants to see, but also raises a question. Has Bartlett been able to figure out how to beat Mendez again? The two squared off three times last year. Bartlett topped Mendez in sudden victory of the dual meet. However, Mendez came back and beat the Nittany Lions’ wrestler in the Big Ten and NCAA finals. Bartlett needs to get more offensive or he’s not going to have a shot of winning titles in his final collegiate season. Prediction: Mendez by decision.
Sauber: The main event of the night will take place early on Friday, with Bartlett looking for revenge against Mendez after last year’s postseason when he went 0-2 against him. The Nittany Lion remains one of the best in the country at the weight, but relies more on his ability to defend takedown attempts than his own aggressiveness in matches. That leads to tighter bouts against top opponents and I’d anticipate this one being a nail-biter. Prediction: Mendez by decision.
149 pounds: No. 2 Shayne Van Ness (14-1) vs. No. 7 Dylan D’Emilio (16-2)
Cobler: After seeing a matchup of top-three wrestlers squaring off, fans get to see a pair of top-10 wrestles tangle. These two have never wrestled, so it’ll be an interesting matchup to see. Van Ness has been rolling since suffering a 10-2 loss to Nebraska’s Ridge Lovett on Jan. 17. He’s won four straight with three victories getting bonus points — two technical falls and a major decision over Iowa’s Kyle Parco. D’Emilio lost to Parco on Jan. 25, but has rattled off three straight wins. Prediction: Van Ness by decision.
Sauber: Van Ness has been dominant of late and looks like he’s trending up as the postseason approaches. His win over Parco is one of the most impressive at the weight this season and his loss to Lovett in the middle of January seems firmly in the rearview mirror. D’Emilio has lost in both of his matches against top five opponents this year — dropping matches to Parco and North Carolina’s Lachlan McNeil — and Van Ness is likely to make him 0-3 in those bouts. Prediction: Van Ness by decision.
157 pounds: No. 1 Tyler Kasak (13-1)/Connor Pierce (7-3)/Ty Watson (3-4) vs. Brandon Cannon (7-1)
Cobler: Kasak took a pretty scary hit to the head against Maryland’s Ethen Miller on Sunday. He was unable to finish out the bout, dropping by injury default. Just like Davis, don’t look for Kasak to make the call here, so he can rest up and be ready for the postseason. So, a question comes into play here, who will fill in for Kasak? Alex Facundo was seen on crutches a little while ago. Do the Nittany Lions bump up one of their extra 149 pounders, or do they give the Penns Valley grad a shot? The Buckeyes have their starter out here too in Sasso, so this bout should be competitive. Prediction: Cannon by decision.
Sauber: Kasak’s status is up in the air after taking a blow to the head Sunday, and there’s no sense in putting him in harm’s way against an opponent that, frankly, won’t really challenge him when he’s fully healthy. With Sasso out of the dual too, this isn’t going to be a bout with much weight to it heading to the postseason. That being said, it should still be close. Prediction: Cannon by decision.
165 pounds: No. 1 Mitchell Mesenbrink (16-0) vs. Brock Herman (13-4)
Cobler: There isn’t much more to say about Mesenbrink. He’s just so relentless, and his pace is unmatched. The No. 1 wrestler in the country has shown that he’s head and shoulders above the others in his weight. Yes, Herman has a good record, and is filling in for Gallagher, but he hasn’t seen anyone like Mesenbrink. Prediction: Mesenbrink by technical fall.
Sauber: I could drone on about why this match won’t be close, but we all know this one is going to end like they all do for Penn State’s 165-pounder. Prediction: Mesenbrink by technical fall.
174 pounds: No. 2 Levi Haines (14-1) vs. No. 5 Carson Kharchla (11-0)
Cobler: Another top-5 tilt gets underway here with Haines aiming to give Kharchla his first loss of the year. These two haven’t faced off, but they have four common opponents. One of those common opponents is Missouri’s Keegan O’Toole, who is the No. 1 wrestler in this weight class. Haines and Kharchla have both lost to O’Toole. Haines’ defeat was 4-1 in sudden victory in December. Kharchla has lost to O’Toole twice with the most recent coming two years ago, 19-4. Prediction: Haines by decision.
Sauber: This is probably the second best bout of the dual, behind the matchup between Bartlett and Mendez. Haines seems like the clear No. 2 at the class behind O’Toole, with his sudden victory defeat being the only one where the Missouri Tiger didn’t get bonus points. Kharchla is a quality opponent, but at the end of the day Haines is the more complete wrestler. Prediction: Haines by decision.
184 pounds: No. 1 Carter Starocci (15-0) vs. No. 19 Ryder Rogotzke (6-5)
Cobler: No one has come close to touching Starocci. In fact, he has only one match this year where he didn’t collect bonus points — Iowa’s Angelo Ferrari (3-1 final score). Rogotzke has been up and down all season long. He has been alternating wins and losses since dropping back-to-back bouts midway through January. Prediction: Starocci by major decision.
Sauber: Starocci is continuing his run to a fifth individual NCAA title and this is not the bout he’s going to lose — if he ever does. Rogotzke’s season has been one of extremes, with a 2-2 record in his last four matches, and both wins coming by fall. Starocci should roll. Prediction: Starocci by major decision.
197 pounds: No. 3 Josh Barr (12-1) vs. No. 23 Seth Shumate (9-11)
Cobler: Barr enters this bout riding high as he upset then-No. 2 Jacob Cardenas of Michigan, 3-2, in ultimate tie breaker. Then, he racked up a 17-2 technical fall on Maryland’s Chase Mielnik. Shumate hasn’t had a great year as he sits with a sub-.500 winning percentage. When it comes to this dual, Shumate will look to just limit the amount of bonus points that Barr gets. Prediction: Barr by technical fall.
Sauber: The Nittany Lions will likely be rolling at this point in the dual, and Barr should be able to capitalize on what could be a quieter Ohio State crowd after the Starocci bout. He’s proven he’s one of the best at 197 pounds and will have a legitimate shot to win a Big Ten title and an NCAA title. Shumate has struggled this season and could be in for a long match. Prediction: Barr by fall.
285 pounds: No. 2 Greg Kerkvliet (15-0) vs. No. 9 Nick Feldman (13-4)
Cobler: There’s plenty of history between these two. They squared off three times last year, with Kerkvliet winning all three. The pair faced off in the Big Ten finals and NCAA semifinals. Kerkvliet was dominant in the Big Ten tilt, but only edged Feldman, 1-0, in the NCAA Championships. Kerkvliet just looks like he’s ready to defend his conference and national crowns, and it appears there is only one wrestler that might be able to take that away from in Minnesota’s Gable Steveson. Prediction: Kerkvliet by decision.
Sauber: Kerkvliet is well on his way to a collision course with Steveson at Big Tens and NCAAs. It would be a surprise if that matchup doesn’t happen twice this postseaosn and it’s the only one that could drop Kerkvliet from the ranks of the unbeaten. Prediction: Kerkvliet by major decision.
Team outlook
Cobler: This Penn State team is just too good. Even with two starters out of the lineup, the Nittany Lions still roll to a pretty commanding victory here against the Buckeyes. With the win, Penn State inches closer to another Big Ten regular season team title with one more Big Ten dual left on Sunday against Illinois. Prediction: Penn State 26, Ohio State 10.
Sauber: Penn State continues its undefeated season after what could be its closest dual of the year thanks to Ohio State matching up well at key weights and the Nittany Lions potentially going without two starters. That being said, even the team’s closest dual this year isn’t close at all. Prediction: Penn State 29, Ohio State 10.
No. 1 Penn State (12-0, 6-0 Big Ten) at No. 8 Ohio State (13-2, 5-2 Big Ten)
When: 7 p.m. Friday
Where: Covelli Center, Columbus
Radio: Big Foot Legends (103.7 & 104.3 FM)
TV: Big Ten Network
Online: Radio, Lionvision at GoPSUsports.com
X: @byncobler, @pennstatewrest
No. 1 Penn State (12-0, 6-0 Big Ten) at No. 13 Illinois (9-3, 4-3 Big Ten)
When: 2 p.m. Sunday
Where: Huff Hall, Champaign, Ill.
Radio: Big Foot Legends (103.7 & 104.3 FM)
Online: Radio, Lionvision at GoPSUsports.com; Video, Big Ten Plus
X: @byncobler, @pennstatewrest
| Nittany Lions | vs. | Fighting Illini |
| 125: No. 7 Luke Lilledahl (13-1) | vs. | Caelan Riley (4-12) |
| 133: No. 8 Braeden Davis (8-2) OR Kyison Garcia (2-2) | vs. | No. 4 Lucas Byrd (14-1) |
| 141: No. 3 Beau Bartlett (15-0) | vs. | No. 17 Danny Pucino (12-3) |
| 149: No. 2 Shayne Van Ness (14-1) | vs. | No. 14 Kannon Webster (11-4) |
| 157: No. 1 Tyler Kasak (13-1) OR Connor Pierce (7-3) OR Ty Watson (3-4) | vs. | No. 30 Jason Kraisser (10-5) |
| 165: No. 1 Mitchell Mesenbrink (16-0) | vs. | No. 14 Braeden Scoles (13-2) |
| 174: No. 2 Levi Haines (14-1) | vs. | No. 23 Danny Braunagel (8-7) |
| 184: No. 1 Carter Starocci (15-0) | vs. | No. 12 Edmond Ruth (10-5) |
| 197: No. 3 Josh Barr (12-1) | vs. | No. 17 Zac Braunagel (11-4) |
| 285: No. 2 Greg Kerkvliet (15-0) | vs. | No. 10 Luke Luffman (12-3) |
