How many Big Ten wrestling champions will Penn State crown? Here are our predictions
Penn State’s wrestling season is coming to a close, with only two events remaining.
This week, the Nittany Lions head to Northwestern University for the Big Ten Championships in Evanston, Illinois. It’s the last stop of the year before the NCAA Championships in Philadelphia March 20-22.
Here’s a look at how we think the Big Ten Championships could play out:
125 pounds: Luke Lilledahl (No. 4)
Nate Cobler: Lilledahl enters his first Big Ten Championships as the No. 4 seed. However, he isn’t a typical No. 4 seed with how much success he’s had this season. He has the ability to wreck the bracket and make the finals while taking out the top seed in Purdue’s Matt Ramos. Lilledahl had a questionable loss this year in the dual with Ohio State, where he was leading and ended up getting pinned. Cael Sanderson and Co. always has their guys ready for the postseason, so look to see a focused Lilledahl looking to repeat what Braeden Davis did a year ago winning this weight class as a true freshman. Lilledahl’s predicted finish: 1st Predicted champion: Lilledahl
Jon Sauber: Ramos should be the favorite at the weight, but he also hasn’t faced any of the other top five wrestlers in the Big Ten in the class. He has wins over Indiana’s Jacob Moran and Ohio State’s Brendan McCrone, who sit just outside the top five, but his lack of track record against the others means this class is more up in the air than you’d expect for one with a 23-0 wrestler at the top. Lilledahl will have a legitimate chance to win the conference title, and would likely take on Ramos in the quarterfinals if both get there. The Nittany Lion has a chance to make waves with a win there — one I think he gets — and head into nationals with some confidence even without a first place finish. Lilledahl’s predicted finish: 2nd Predicted champion: Rutgers’ Dean Peterson.
133 pounds: Braeden Davis (No. 4)
Cobler: The question here is how healthy is Davis. He missed the duals with Iowa and Michigan, but came back for the Big Ten closers with Ohio State and Illionis. Davis didn’t wrestle in the season finale, but Sanderson said during Monday’s media day that Davis is as healthy as he has been since getting injured in the season-opening dual against Drexel. As the No. 4 seed, it’s not ideal as Davis falls on the same side of the bracket as the No. 1 seed in Iowa’s Drake Ayala. It was a bout fans wanted to see in that dual with the Hawkeyes, but didn’t come to fruition. Davis’ predicted finish: 3rd Predicted champion: Ayala
Sauber: Ayala is favored here, and for good reason. He already has a win over Iliinois’ Lucas Byrd, who he’d meet in the finals if the seeds at the weight hold. While Davis has missed some time due to injury, he should be able to make an impact at Big Tens. It’s just a matter of whether he can string enough good performances together to potentially defeat Rutgers’ Dylan Shawver in the quarters, Ayala in the semis and Byrd in the finals. While I don’t think he’s going to get past the semis, he should do enough to convince people he should be even better at NCAAs in a couple weeks. A win for Ayala over Davis should lead to another win for the Hawkeye over Byrd in the finals to win the conference title. Davis’ predicted finish: 3rd Predicted champion: Ayala
141 pounds: Beau Bartlett (No. 1)
Cobler: This is probably one of the most loaded weight classes in the conference, with Bartlett leading the pack. He didn’t get to this point until late in the season though. He topped Ohio State’s Jesse Mendez in the dual, which was similar to last year. The downfall though was Mendez got Bartlett in the other two meetings after that, which were the Big Ten and NCAA finals. However, Bartlett seems like he may have figured out Mendez, so it’s just a matter of if the two will match up in the Big Ten finals again. Bartlett’s predicted finish: 1st Predicted champion: Bartlett
Sauber: There’s some decent depth at 141 pounds, but it would be a surprise if it’s not Bartlett and Mendez meeting in the final. Nebraska’s Brock Hardy or Minnesota’s Vance Vombaur could get in the way, but those two are 0-2 against Bartlett and Mendez this year. If the Nittany Lion and the Buckeye meet in the final, it will be the fifth bout between the two in the last two seasons. Mendez has won both postseason matchups, while Bartlett has taken both dual matchups. This should be a tightly contested bout, but Bartlett should be able to earn his first postseason win over Mendez. I don’t see how this doesn’t happen for a second year in a row. Bartlett’s predicted finish: 1st Predicted champion: Bartlett
149 pounds: Shayne Van Ness (No. 1)
Cobler: It’s interesting how this weight shook out, with Van Ness losing to Nebraska’s Ridge Lovett, but beating Iowa’s Kyle Parco. However, Lovett lost to Parco, which set up the top three in this order of Van Ness, Parco and Lovett. This means that Van Ness won’t have to face either of these two until the finals saying they all make it to that point. The Nittany Lions’ wrestler has been on a roll since that loss to Lovett, so I don’t see how he doesn’t make the finals here. It will be quite the accomplishment to see if Van Ness can go from missing all of last year to a Big Ten champ. Van Ness’ predicted finish: 1st Predicted champion: Van Ness
Sauber: Van Ness comes in as the top seed after only losing once this year, to Lovett in January by major decision. He’s wrestled at a very high level since then, including earning a 17-6 major decision win over Parco, who comes in as the No. 2 seed at the weight class. Van Ness won a tight bout with Ohio State’s Dylan D’Emilio, who he could face in the quarterfinals. The Nittany Lion should be able to make it to the finals, and if Parco is there waiting for him then he should have an advantage. If it’s Lovett, it could make for a more interesting match. I’ll say Parco holds his seed and makes the final, falling to Van Ness once again. Van Ness’ predicted finish: 1st Predicted champion: Van Ness
157 pounds: Tyler Kasak (No. 2)
Cobler: Kasak is the No. 1 wrestler in the country, but since he had an injury default loss to the No. 1 seed in Maryland’s Ethen Miller, he’s No. 2. Sometimes it doesn’t make sense how seeding occurs, but when it comes to wrestlers, they don’t care, they just go out and wrestle. In Kasak’s case, he shouldn’t have too much of a problem reaching the finals. If the seeds hold true, he’ll face Nebraska’s Antrell Taylor, who he beat 9-3 in the Jan. 17 dual. Kasak will have to be careful with all the headbutts he’s taken on, which forced him to miss some time toward the end of the season. I don’t expect Kasak to see Miller in the finals though. Kasak’s predicted finish: 1st Predicted champion: Kasak
Sauber: Kasak isn’t the No. 1 seed, but the PSU wrestler is the best wrestler at 157 pounds. Maryland’s Ethen Miller has the top spot after getting an injury default victory over the Nittany Lion in the dual between the Terps and Penn State. Those two can’t meet until the finals, but I don’t think it gets to that point. Iowa’s Jacori Teemer should be able to defeat Miller in the quarterfinals, assuming he gets there, setting up for him to face Kasak in the final. That would be a rematch of one of the most memorable bouts of the season, with Kasak lifting the Hawkeye in the air and raising his fist in victory as the final seconds ticked off the clock in the Bryce Jordan Center. This time, though, Teemer gets revenge. Kasak’s predicted finish: 2nd Predicted champion: Teemer
165 pounds: Mitchell Mesenbrink (No. 1)
Cobler: There really isn’t much to say here at this weight. It’s Mesenbrink’s title to lose, and it will be his second consecutive crown. The only way that occurs is if he were to somehow suffer an injury. Mesenbrink doesn’t usually put himself in situations where an injury can occur, so the question here is who will he face in the finals. The way it looks, this could very easily be Iowa’s Mikey Caliendo, who Mesenbrink hung a 19-4 technical fall on in the Jan. 31 dual inside the Bryce Jordan Center. Caliendo is the No. 2 seed with Nebraska’s Christopher Minto coming in at No. 3, so those two could face off in the semifinals for a shot at Mesenbrink. Mesenbrink’s predicted finish: 1st Predicted champion: Mesenbrink
Sauber: This is one of the weight classes where the draw really doesn’t matter. Mesenbrink has been dominant all season and it would be a surprise if he didn’t pick up bonus points in every round. He’s the clear favorite, not just in the Big Ten, but across the country. Mesenbrink is the best 165-pounder in college wrestling by a long shot and should roll in Evanston. It’s just a matter of who picks up second place and if they can prevent Mesenbrink from earning a technical fall in the final. I’ll say it’s Iowa’s Mikey Caliendo and the Nittany Lion gets the tech fall. Mesenbrink’s predicted finish: 1st Predicted champion: Mesenbrink
174 pounds: Levi Haines (No. 1)
Cobler: Remember what I said about Mesenbrink’s weight? The same can be said here for Haines’ path toward another Big Ten crown. It would be his third conference title, but his first at his new weight. Haines is the two-time defending 157-pound champion. So, who will he face in the finals? As it stands right now, it could be either Ohio State’s Carson Kharchla or Nebraska’s Lenny Pinto. Kharchla is the No. 2 seed with Pinto being No. 3. Haines has beaten both of them, but Kharchla was a much closer victory, 6-4, compared to the win over Pinto, 9-2. Haines’ predicted finish: 1st Predicted champion: Haines
Sauber: Haines has only been defeated once this season — by top-ranked Keegan O’Toole from Missouri. He’s had success against the other top wrestlers in the weight class, defeating Kharchla, Pinto and Iowa’s Patrick Kennedy — the three other top wrestlers at 174 pounds. He’s been excellent after moving up two weights this season and this will be a good opportunity for him to show he’s ready for a potential rematch with O’Toole at nationals. That’s not to say he’ll be looking ahead — Nittany Lion wrestlers rarely fall into that trap — but his performance should allow fans to start thinking about the matchup. Pinto, meanwhile, should have a strong chance of earning second place at the weight. Haines’ predicted finish: 1st Predicted champion: Haines
184 pounds: Carter Starocci (No. 1)
Cobler: Wash, rinse, repeat. This is another weight that would be shocking to not see a Penn State wrestler at the top. Starocci has had no troubles adjusting to his new weight, and has stayed just as dominant. Outside of aiming to become the first five-time NCAA champion, Starocci is looking to make up for missed time last year. He had to injury default out of the Big Ten Championships after suffering a late season injury, that he did manage to get through to win his fourth NCAA title. One thing to keep an eye on will be the semifinals should the seeds hold true. This is because Iowa’s Gabe Arnold is listed as the No. 4 seed, so Starocci could see him to make the finals. Arnold has been vocal about wanting to take out Starocci on the wrestling mat, but he may want to be careful of what he wishes for. Starocci’s predicted finish: 1st Predicted champion: Starocci
Sauber: This is another weight where a Nittany Lion should roll to a title. Starocci has a chance to win the Hodge Trophy this season and there aren’t any 184-pounders in the Big Ten that can contest him. Minnesota’s Max McEnelly has been impressive and is undefeated to this point, but he’s still not likely to upset Starocci. The most exciting matchup could come in the semifinals, where Starocci may take on Arnold. The two have engaged in some verbal sparring but have yet to face off after Iowa didn’t send Arnold to the mat at the team’s dual against Penn State. There could be fireworks in that match, if only because of the contentiousness. That being said, Starocci is still not likely to fall to anyone this weekend. Starocci’s predicted finish: 1st Predicted champion: Starocci
197 pounds: Josh Barr (No. 2)
Cobler: Barr has had quite the season. He didn’t start out as the Nittany Lions starter as he battled with Lucas Cochran for the spot. After dominating his way through the Black Knight Invite, Barr has been the guy and showed why he should be. He had big wins over Lehigh’s Michael Beard and Little Rock’s Stephen Little. When it comes to conference opponents, Barr had consecutive weeks where he faced the No. 1 and No. 2 wrestler in the country at that time. He lost to the No. 1 wrestler and see in Iowa’s Stephen Buchanan, but then beat the No. 3 seed in Michigan’s Jacob Cardenas. Look for Barr and Buchanan to face off again for the Big Ten crown. Barr’s predicted finish: 2nd Predicted champion: Buchanan
Sauber: This should be a highly contested weight with Iowa’s Stephen Buchanan coming in as the favorite thanks to victories over three of the other top four wrestlers at the class, with Michigan’s Jacob Cardenas being the only one he hasn’t faced. The undefeated Hawkeye earned a 4-1 win over Barr in a hostile environment at the Bryce Jordan Center, setting up for a potential rematch between the two in the postseason with the Nittany Lion on the other side of the bracket. Barr may have to defeat Cardenas for a second time to get there, and Buchanan may have to do the same against Minnesota’s Isaiah Salazar, but I think both will get the job done. That will set up a quality final that ends with Buchanan getting his hand raised. Barr’s predicted finish: 2nd Predicted champion: Buchanan
285 pounds: Greg Kerkvliet (No. 2)
Cobler: There isn’t too much to say about this weight because the top two guys in the country are head and shoulders above not only the conference but also the entire college wrestling scene. Kerkvliet and Minnesota’s Gable Steveson are pretty much guaranteed to not only face off in the Big Ten finals, but also the NCAA finals in Philadelphia in two weeks. Steveson has been dominant since making his return to college wrestling, but he still has two collegiate losses — both to former Penn State wrestler Anthony Cassar. Kerkvliet has Cassar in his room for practice, but that doesn’t necessarily means what Cassar did will translate for Kerkvliet. Kerkvliet’s predicted finish: 2nd Predicted champion: Steveson
Sauber: This one is all about the final. Kerkvliet and Steveson have been on a collision course ever since the Gopher made his return to collegiate wrestling this season. He’s one of the most dominant wrestlers at this level of all-time and has been one of the few who have been able to stop Kerkvliet since he became a Nittany Lion. There shouldn’t be anyone in the weight class who can get in either wrestler’s way, setting up for what could be one of the best bouts of the weekend. While Kerkvliet is better since the last time he faced Steveson in 2022, and should be able to keep this one close — that being said, it’s hard to pick against the Gopher. Kerkvliet’s predicted finish: 2nd Predicted champion: Steveson
Team outlook
Cobler: The Nittany Lions could get close to the Big Ten team points record, which is 200 scored by Iowa in 1983. The Hawkeyes had nine champions and a fourth-place finisher that year. With my prediction of Penn State having nine finalists and a third place finish, it could be very close, but unless all nine finalists won then the record will stand. This is just a preview of what the Nittany Lions could accomplish at the NCAA Championships. They may not have nearly as many finalists, but they’ll still have an opportunity to maybe break the points record they set last year. Penn State’s predicted finish: 1st Predicted champion: Penn State
Sauber: Penn State didn’t lose a dual all season, yet it’s more well-equipped to win in tournament settings than against individual teams. That’s a bad sign for everyone else in the conference. I’ve got PSU winning five individual titles this weekend with another four in the finals at their weight. The Nittany Lions should rack up plenty of bonus points on their way to a fourth straight Big Ten title — one that will set the stage for them to go to Philadelphia in two weeks and dominate at the 2025 NCAA Wrestling Championships, too. Penn State’s predicted finish: 1st Predicted champion: Penn State
Big Ten Championships
When: Saturday and Sunday
Where: Welsh-Ryan Arena, Evanston, Ill.
Times: First session (First Round, Quarterfinals, Wrestlebacks), Saturday, 11 a.m.; Second session (Consolation Matches, Wrestlebacks, Semifinals, 8 p.m.), Saturday, 6 p.m.; Third session (Consolation Semifinals, 7th-Place Matches), Sunday, 1 p.m.; Final session (Finals, Consolation Finals, 5th-Place Matches), 5:30 p.m.
Radio: Big Foot Legends (103.7 & 104.3 FM)
Online: Radio, Lionvision at GoPSUsports.com; Video, Big Ten Plus
X: @byncobler, @pennstatewrest
