How is Centre County growing? Why census numbers might not be clear, and a ‘recount’ might be ahead
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Centre County saw some population growth in the 2020 census compared to 2010, but not as much as some expected, prompting conversations about a potential recount in the county.
Officials from Centre County as well as the State College Borough are weighing the possibility. The census, which is conducted every 10 years, counts every resident in the United States. That information is used in a number of ways, including to make planning decisions about community services and to distribute federal funds to local, state and tribal governments each year, the census website states. It’s also used to determine the distribution of congressional seats to states, though a recount would not impact that.
The population in Centre County was 153,990 in 2010 and grew to 158,172 in 2020, according to the census website. But the issue is with municipalities in the Centre Region that predominantly have Penn State students residing there during the school year, county Commissioner Michael Pipe said. When the census count was expected for April 1, 2020, students had already been sent home due to the coronavirus pandemic.
In a memo to the State College Borough Council in September 2021, borough Manager Tom Fountaine wrote that messaging prior to the decision to send students home was to “ ‘count where you sleep on Census Day, April 1, 2020,’ this created confusion amongst parents and students about where to properly identify as a place of residency for the Census.” Though students may have spent most of their time living in Centre County, and more specifically, the borough, they weren’t sleeping there on Census Day.
Slight population decline in State College
The borough actually saw a population reduction — about 1,500 — which Pipe said was counterintuitive to what the expected results were based on the growth of downtown apartments and high-rises. Also, the annual estimated census numbers suggested the total population of the county in June 2019 was around 162,000, Pipe said.
“The count for the county when it was officially done in 2020 came in at 158,000. So, it’s clear that there was ... about 4,000 individuals that just weren’t counted in some way, shape or form,” Pipe said. “And I think that it’s safe to say that the majority of those individuals were probably in the Borough of State College.”
Douglas Shontz, communications specialist for the borough, agreed and said that despite some of the “dense development” in the borough, which added more beds and increased heights, the census reported a drop in population.
A secondary issue for the borough is that the post office considers the downtown student housing (apartment buildings) as dormitories or quarters, but they weren’t handled the same as group quarters in the census operation, Shontz said.
Because of those issues, a recount may be possible. Two of the big reasons for a recount, Pipe said, are funding and planning decisions. Some federal money that is allocated to the state and to the county is formula driven; with some of the formulas, like the Community Development Block Grant, more money is received if there are more people. Planning wise, it’s important to have accurate numbers when doing community development work.
Beyond the official process through the U.S. Census Bureau, the borough is talking with national partners to determine if there’s another avenue to take. The September memo stated staff will look into the issues and resolutions, which includes submitting an application for the Census’s Count Question Resolution Program. The CQR Program provides a process to challenge the census counts of housing units and group quarters. The borough is also interested in the 2020 Post-Census Group Quarters Review. A one-time program, it was developed due to the “unique circumstances surrounding the 2020 Census and allows the Census Bureau to collect information in support of its ongoing programs, such as the intercensal population estimates and the American Community Survey,” the website states.
Next steps for a recount
Pipe said the county is still in early conversations and doesn’t have a concrete decision on the recount. They have until the middle of 2023 to make a decision. A recount can be costly — up to $1 million — and doesn’t guarantee that the numbers will come back any differently.
Beyond the Centre Region, Pipe thinks the counts of other communities are accurate.
Prior to the Commerce Department putting out guidance for how communities can move forward with a recanvass and a recount, Pipe said there was a hope that some of the benchmarks communities would need to reach would be changed. But that didn’t happen and it’s a high bar to reach, he said.
If, for example, a development was completed in 2019 and people were moving in during that time period, that would be a new development for the census. If it was missed, officials could go to the census and say it wasn’t counted.
“The challenge is when it’s a more broad community and we’ve got 40,000 folks in the borough, 160,000 across the county. It becomes a little bit more intangible for how the census could ... go about that. I think also, the last thing the census would want to do, and this is where it gets into the ... the regulations as well, is we were hoping they were going to change and be a little bit more lenient, especially for college communities,” Pipe said.
Shontz stressed that the process will not happen overnight.
“This is a highly important thing. But it is an uphill battle because it’s such a unique and dynamic situation. ... We’re going to go through that Group Quarters Review Process. The Count Question Resolution Process has already been outlined. However, some of our issues don’t really fall under that but staff will work on submitting an application through that. These things, working through different levels of government, do take time,” Shontz said.
Were other Centre Region municipalities undercounted?
Beyond the county and the borough, other Centre Region municipalities think their population is undercounted but opinions vary on the need for a recount.
Doug Erickson, Patton Township manager, said in an email that they think the census count missed many residents, “especially in areas with predominantly student housing such as along Toftrees Avenue and Vairo Boulevard.” He said it is concerning, but they haven’t calculated how much the undercount may impact the township in terms of funding. He wrote they typically don’t receive any direct federal funding that’s based on population but do receive some state funding, such as Liquid Fuels.
Adam Brumbaugh, College Township manager, said in an email that the township is not overly concerned about the census having missed the population count, but he does believe the township was undercounted. The township would likely be supportive of a recount, but he didn’t think the township would “substantially contribute financial resources” toward it. That decision would have to come from the College Township Council.
Ferguson Township is in the same boat. David Pribulka, township manager, said in an email that it’s likely that some census tracts were undercounted, but it isn’t believed to be significant enough to support a recount.
