Can Penn State stop its slide toward rock bottom with a win over Michigan? Here’s 2 key matchups
Before the start of the 2020 season, Penn State’s Week 6 matchup against Michigan was pegged to be a battle of front-runners in the Big Ten East. But now, the Nittany Lions are off to a program-worst 0-5 start to the season as they travel to Ann Arbor on Saturday to take on a struggling Wolverines team.
Penn State heads into the contest as a 2.5-point underdog. But if PSU wants to stop its slide toward rock bottom and win its first game of the season, it will need to dominate its matchups.
Here are two key matchups to Saturday’s game (noon, ABC) that we think will directly determine the outcome:
PARTH UPADHYAYA: PSU WR JAHAN DOTSON VS. MICHIGAN SECONDARY
One of the lone bright spots in Penn State’s disastrous season has been the play of junior wide receiver Jahan Dotson. After having eight catches for 139 yards and a touchdown in the Nittany Lions’ loss to Iowa last Saturday, the 5-foot-11, 182-pound Nazareth native is up to 527 receiving yards and six touchdowns through five games this season.
But against the Hawkeyes, 68 of Dotson’s 139 receiving yards came off of one long touchdown reception at the end of the third quarter. If Penn State can manage to get Dotson involved earlier against Michigan, it could give itself a decent chance to win.
Luckily for the Nittany Lions, the Wolverines’ secondary has been shredded all season — they rank 103rd in passing yards allowed, giving up 274 per contest.
In its triple-overtime win over Rutgers last week, Michigan allowed two Scarlet Knights receivers to catch for over 100 yards. Receiver Shameen Jones led the way for Rutgers with 127 yards on seven catches, while Bo Melton added 109 yards and a touchdown on seven catches.
Even before its matchup against Rutgers, receivers have had big games against Michigan. Indiana receiver Ty Fryfogle had seven catches for 142 yards and a touchdown on the Wolverines in Week 3, and before that Michigan State receiver Ricky White put up 196 yards and a touchdown on eight catches against the Wolverines in Week 2.
Dotson has been a nightmare for most opposing secondaries this year. After posting just one game of over 100 receiving yards in 2019, he has three such games this year. The junior had 144 yards on eight catches versus Ohio State and 123 yards on nine catches versus Maryland before putting up another monster game against Iowa last weekend.
But despite Dotson’s breakout season, the Nittany Lions haven’t had success this year. Penn State lost by at least 13 points in Dotson’s three biggest games of the season.
The Nittany Lions aren’t expected to beat any opponent right now. But if they can manage to get the ball in Dotson’s hands from the opening kick on Saturday against the Wolverines, they could give themselves a fighting chance in this one.
JON SAUBER: MICHIGAN QB CADE MCNAMARA VS. PENN STATE PASS DEFENSE
Penn State’s defense this season hasn’t even approached the standards set by past Nittany Lion defenses. The unit has allowed at least 30 points in all of its first five games and hasn’t put up a fight against offenses, no matter how bad or good.
It appeared the group would have an easier matchup this week based on its opponent’s struggles early in the season but that’s no longer the case.
Michigan seems to have found its answer at quarterback in sophomore Cade McNamara, even though coach Jim Harbaugh has yet to publicly name a starter for Saturday’s game. McNamara only played in garbage time up until Week 4. He stepped in for junior quarterback Joe Milton late in the team’s game against Wisconsin and appears to have taken the job for good.
The sophomore played well enough against the Badgers — he had 4-of-7 passing, 74 yards and a touchdown — to earn more playing time against Rutgers Saturday after junior Joe Milton struggled. He proved Harbaugh’s decision to pull Milton correct after the display he put on against the Scarlet Knights.
He stood firm in the pocket and found his weapons consistently in the team’s 48-42 triple overtime win. McNamara completed 27-of-36 passes for four touchdowns and added a rushing touchdown to light up the Rutgers defense. Seven different Wolverines finished with at least four receptions in the game with the sophomore quarterback firing the ball at different points in his progression and not relying on a primary receiver to succeed.
The Nittany Lions have struggled against successful quarterbacks this season. Ohio State junior Justin Fields lit Penn State up for 318 yards and four touchdowns on 28-of-34 passing while Maryland sophomore quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa racked up 282 yards and three touchdowns on 18-of-26 passing. Those two were the biggest performances, but Nebraska’s Luke McCaffrey and Iowa’s Spencer Petras both found success, as well, thanks to Penn State’s poor coverage from its safeties and its linebackers. Combine that bad coverage with bad tackling and a scheme that seems to have plenty of holes and it’s a recipe for disaster for the Penn State passing defense.
The Nittany Lions are likely to struggle in that area again, putting the onus on the defensive line to make up for it. The Penn State defensive front will need to pressure McNamara and make him uncomfortable to alleviate the pressure on the back seven. If the linemen can do that and the team’s coverage can be competent, the Nittany Lions could earn their first victory of the season Saturday afternoon.
This story was originally published November 25, 2020 at 10:00 AM.
