How can Penn State end its regular season on a high note with a win over Illinois? Here’s 2 key matchups
Coming off of three consecutive wins over Michigan, Rutgers and Michigan State after an 0-5 start to the season, Penn State is expected to continue its turnaround when it takes on Illinois at home on Saturday. The Nittany Lions are a 15-point favorite over the Fighting Illini. But if PSU wants to win on the field and not just on paper, it’ll need to dominate its matchups.
Here are two key matchups in Saturday’s game (5:30 p.m., FS1) that we think will directly determine the outcome:
PARTH UPADHYAYA: PSU RBS VS. ILLINOIS RUN DEFENSE
Before last week’s win over Michigan State, Penn State had turned to its running game to be the focal point of its offense in its first two wins of the season over Michigan and Rutgers.
The Nittany Lions ran for 254 yards against the Wolverines in Week 6 before running for 248 yards against the Scarlet Knights. Freshman running back Keyvone Lee led the way in both contests — the 6-foot, 230-pound Florida native ran for a career-high 134 yards versus the Wolverines and had 95 yards on the ground versus the Scarlet Knights.
But against Michigan State, Penn State’s rushing attack wasn’t effective. The Nittany Lions managed to run for just 119 yards on 40 carries — good for just 3 yards per carry. Lee — who was emerging as a star — only had 31 rushing yards on 12 carries (2.6 yards per rush) against the Spartans.
In Illinois’ 28-10 loss to Northwestern last week, the Fighting Illini allowed the Wildcats to rack up 411 rushing yards. Two Northwestern running backs — Evan Hull and Cam Porter — ran for over 140 yards. And as a result, the Wildcats won the time of possession battle (34:35 to 25:25) and controlled the game.
Penn State should be able to follow a similar path to success against Illinois on Saturday. Lee has a chance to bounce back in this contest and sophomore running back Devyn Ford — who’s shown flashes of dominance at times — will also have an opportunity to have a solid outing.
After their Week 7 win over Rutgers, Ford said the Nittany Lions were getting back to their offensive identity — which he described as “smash-mouth football” and running the ball “down these people’s throats” to “take their will away.”
Illinois is ranked No. 114 out of 127 FBS teams in run defense — allowing 226.9 yards on the ground per contest. Look for Penn State to expose this glaring weakness en route to a win on Saturday.
JON SAUBER: ILLINOIS QBS VS. PENN STATE DEFENSE
It wouldn’t be a surprise if four quarterbacks play in Saturday’s Week 9 matchup between the Illini and Nittany Lions. Penn State goes to both redshirt junior Sean Clifford and redshirt sophomore Will Levis for snaps at the position, while Illinois has a less settled rotation.
The Illini have senior Brandon Peters at quarterback when he’s been healthy and available, but he hasn’t closed their last two games.
The closing quarterback has been freshman Isaiah Williams, who has been better than the incumbent when he’s seen the field this year.
Peters is a more traditional drop-back passer who stands in the pocket and tries to deliver to his receivers. However, he hasn’t found much success this season, completing only 39-of-76 passes for 429 yards and three touchdowns through the air. He’s been inefficient and was particularly bad in the team’s last game. He went 3-of-14 for 21 yards against Northwestern Saturday afternoon and was pulled for Williams, who came in completed 4-of-8 passes for 86 yards and a touchdown to go with seven rushes for 38 yards.
The freshman has been better than Peters of late and has begun to earn more playing time due to his dynamism as a runner to go with passing abilities that have been mostly on-par with the struggling Peters.
If Illinois decides to go with the more dynamic Williams at the position, Penn State could potentially have its hands full. The Illinois offense hasn’t been good all year and there isn’t much data to back up a breakout performance, but Williams is a legitimate threat as a runner and can make enough plays with his arm to keep the defense at bay.
Penn State has been up-and-down defensively this season but has shown its strength in recent weeks. Starting Peters would almost assuredly continue that stretch of strong play, but starting Williams will add more variability.
While it’s unlikely either quarterback poses much of a threat to the Nittany Lions, Williams could at least make things interesting Saturday evening. Whoever takes the field at the position will be doing so under a new head coach after Lovie Smith was let go by Illinois Sunday. There could be an invigoration of sorts on the away sideline Saturday, and Williams is just good enough to capitalize on that and make some big plays to scare the Penn State defense.
