Penn State wrestling mailbag: Top upset picks to win Big Ten titles?

This is the month that Penn State wrestling looks forward to all season — it’s finally the postseason.

The Big Ten tournament is right around the corner and set to take place this Saturday-Sunday in Minneapolis, Minn. The national tournament will take place two weeks later, March 21-23, in Pittsburgh.

The season has officially heated up for the Nittany Lions, and so has our mailbag. Let’s get straight to it this week:

Who’s your top upset pick to win an individual Big Ten title?

Well, you didn’t specify whether it’s a Penn State pick or not — so we’re just going to go ahead and give you both.

For argument’s sake, we’ll use the pre-seeds for the conference tournament. So that’ll eliminate the Nittany Lions’ four top seeds right off the bat. For Penn State, we’ll go with No. 2 pre-seed Nick Lee at 141 pounds. And, if we’re talking non-Penn State guys, Iowa’s Spencer Lee sure looks like a solid pick at 125 pounds. He’s also a No. 2 seed.

OK, sure, we’re not exactly going out on a limb there. So how about we make it a little harder on ourselves? Who has the best chance to win the Big Ten tournament who’s seeded fourth or worst?

For that, we both agree that Michigan’s Logan Massa at 165 pounds — seeded fifth — and Penn State’s Roman Bravo-Young at 133 pounds, seeded fourth, have the best shot.

Massa has shown before that he can hang with the best. He beat Iowa’s Alex Marinelli last season and took Penn State’s Vincenzo Joseph to sudden victory before a close loss at this year’s dual. How many other No. 5 seeds can say that in the Big Ten tournament?

As far as Bravo-Young, Michigan’s Stevan Micic may have the slight edge at 133 pounds, but as the most loaded weight class in the country, the rest of the class is pretty wide open. Six wrestlers have a legitimate shot at the title here, but we’ve seen up-close what Bravo-Young can do. And now that he’s feeling better from a January leg injury, we’re definitely not counting him out. If he can beat Ohio State’s Luke Pletcher with a bum knee, we think he can compete while healthy with the likes of Micic.

So, if we were picking the most likely “underdogs” to win, it’d be the two Lees. But opponents can’t sleep on Massa or Bravo-Young either.

What do you think Penn State’s most memorable individual match was this year?

We came up with five finalists for the title of “most memorable,” all for different reasons. So let’s start with the obvious ones first — and then we’ll make our pick at the end.

The three most important bouts, we’d say, are Nick Lee’s 7-6 win over Ohio State’s Joey McKenna, Roman Bravo-Young’s narrow victory over Ohio State’s Luke Pletcher in the second tiebreaker period and Mark Hall’s 4-0 decision over Arizona State’s Zahid Valencia. The two others that come to mind, because they were just fun to watch, include Jason Nolf pinning Buffalo’s wrestler right after he taunted Nolf — and when Nolf pulled off another “secret move,” in the milkshake, against Michigan State.

So, it sort of depends on how you define “memorable.” Nolf’s win over Buffalo had laughter echoing off the Rec Hall walls, and we can’t remember the last time that was the case. Then again, when’s the last time an opponent taunted Nolf? But if sheer importance counts, to both Penn State as a team and an individual wrestler, then it’s difficult to look past Lee’s and Bravo-Young’s wins over the Buckeyes.

Both of those bouts were close, well-wrestled and entertaining, so those are our two finalists. And, if we had to pick one, then we’re going with Lee’s victory over McKenna.

Don’t get us wrong; RBY’s win — especially while wrestling with a leg injury — set the tone in the bout. But McKenna was ranked No. 2 nationally at the time, and Lee’s win essentially ensured the Nittany Lions’ dual win streak would continue. (Sure, it was the second bout — but nobody thought the then-No. 2 Buckeyes were winning after losing their first two bouts, in which they were the favorites.)

Lee trailed by as much as 5-1, and he never gave up. Even when officials overturned one of his takedowns, he still kept at it. In the final period, he tallied two takedowns and an escape, the last takedown of which came with just 30 seconds left in the final period.

So there may have been a lot of memorable bouts. But, after talking it out, that one is tops for us.

Does Penn State finally win the Big Ten tournament this year? Give us who finishes 1-2-3.

Going into this season’s tournament with a relatively healthy squad, this year appears to be the year Penn State takes back the Big Ten crown from the Buckeyes. The Nittany Lions were awarded four top pre-seeds by the conference coaches on Monday — the only team to have multiple No. 1s.

In addition to bringing back returning Big Ten champs Nickal and Hall, Nolf has both legs this year, and without Illinois’ Isaiah Martinez, Joseph is the favorite to win the conference for the first time in his career.

So, if Penn State’s the clear favorite, who leads the race for runner-up? Well, the other teams with the best chances to crown multiple champs are Ohio State and Iowa. But in order to do so, they’ll have to upset some Nittany Lions.

The team with the best shot to get multiple champs, aside from Penn State, is Ohio State. Myles Martin is the heavy favorite at 184 pounds, and McKenna is a strong contender at 141. Both of Ohio State’s pre-seeded No. 2s, Micah Jordan and Kollin Moore, have good shots at making it at least into the finals. But with Anthony Ashnault and Nickal, respectively, beating them soundly earlier in the season, odds aren’t in their favor to win.

Iowa has no No. 1 pre-seeds but three dangerous No. 2s in Spencer Lee at 125 pounds, Austin DeSanto at 133 and Alex Marinelli at 165. Iowa also has an overall solid lineup that is sure to add points throughout the tournament. If Spencer Lee is able to get back to his winning ways and earn a Big Ten title, and the Hawkeyes get a couple finalists — maybe even another champ — they’ll be in a good position for third.

In other words, our 1-2-3 is Penn State-Ohio State-Iowa.

This story was originally published March 4, 2019 at 9:17 PM.