How many NCAA champions will Penn State wrestling crown in Philly? See our predictions
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2025 NCAA Wrestling Championships
The Penn State Nittany Lions won their 13th national title and made some history at the NCAA Wrestling Championships in Philadelphia. Read all of our coverage here.
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The final event of Penn State’s wrestling season is here.
The NCAA championships get started on Thursday inside the Wells Fargo Arena in Philadelphia. The event finishes up on Saturday night, where the Nittany Lions will look to claim the 12th team title in the last 14 championships.
There could be history made too, with Carter Starocci looking to win his fifth NCAA title — a feat never before accomplished.
Here’s a look at how we predict things could end up on Saturday night:
125 Pounds: Luke Lilledahl
Nate Cobler: Lilledahl being the No. 1 seed is supposed to give him the easiest path toward a championship. However, this weight class is deep, and any of the top nine seeds has the ability to win it all. The Big Ten champ should have no problems making the quarterfinals, where he’ll probably get a rematch with one of two opponents from this season in Nebraska’s Caleb Smith or Lehigh’s Sheldon Seymour. Lilledahl has beaten Smith twice now, most recently in the Big Ten finals. He edged Seymour earlier in the year, but that was when the true freshman was still getting his feet wet in college wrestling. I look for Lilledahl to get past his first challenge and get another tough test in the semifinals against either the defending NCAA champion in Arizona State’s Richard Figueroa or North Carolina State’s Vincent Robinson. Lilledahl’s quickness propels himself into the finals and a Big Ten finals rematch with Purdue’s Matt Ramos. Lilledahl’s predicted finish: 1st Predicted champion: Lilledahl
Jon Sauber: Lilledahl enters the tournament as the top seed in a weight class that is up for grabs. He has a smooth path to the quarterfinals, where he could potentially take on Nebraska’s Smith in a rematch of the Big Ten title match. That matchup, a potential semifinal against Figueroa and a final against Purdue’s Matt Ramos, are the most likely stumbling blocks for the Nittany Lion in Philadelphia. While he’s had an impressive freshman year and has as good of a chance as anyone at getting to the final, I’ll say he drops his bout with Figueroa, but wrestles back for a strong finish — clearing the way for Ramos. Lilledahl’s predicted finish: 3rd Predicted champion: Purdue’s Matt Ramos
133 Pounds: Braeden Davis
Cobler: Davis enters his second NCAA championships on a completely different level than he did a year ago. He was the No. 1 seed at 125 pounds after winning a Big Ten crown, but sits as the No. 8 seed at his new weight. It doesn’t give him the best draws to try and make the podium, which he didn’t do last year either. This season has been a roller coaster ride for the Penn State wrestler. Look for Davis to make the quarterfinals, but it won’t be easy. He has to get by Maryland’s Braxton Brown, who nearly beat Davis in the Big Ten championships. After he gets past Brown, Davis will get the No. 1 seed in Illinois’ Lucas Byrd, who dismantled Davis in the dual. I look for Davis to not get too much further than what he was seeded as. Davis’ predicted finish: 7th Predicted champion: Arkansas Little Rock’s Nasir Bailey
Sauber: Davis arguably has the most to prove of any Nittany Lion this week because of his injury-marred, up-and-down campaign. He wrestled to his seed at Big Tens, finishing fourth, but even that came with some level of disappointment as he lost by fall in his third place match. There’s a world where Davis makes a run and finishes near the top of the podium, and one where he doesn’t finish top eight and isn’t an All-American. A quarterfinal matchup with Byrd of Illinois, the top seed at the weight, spells trouble for Davis. It’s tough to envision him getting past Byrd with how his year has gone, but I’d still anticipate he outperforms his No. 8 seed. Byrd should go on to the finals where Iowa’s Drake Ayala awaits for their third matchup of the season. Davis’ predicted finish: 5th Predicted champion: Ayala
141 Pounds: Beau Bartlett
Cobler: The Big Ten has the top three seeded wrestlers in this weight class that is full of potential just like the 125 pound weight class. Nebraska’s Brock Hardy, Bartlett and Ohio State’s Jesse Mendez are those three wrestlers, in that order. Of all of the top seeds, Hardy, who won a Big Ten title, is the least likely to make the finals of their respective weight class. It was stunning to see Bartlett and Mendez both fall in the Big Ten semis two weeks ago, which is what kind of caused this chaos. Those two should face off in the semifinals. With this being Bartlett’s last hurrah, I see him making the finals here, but still a little hesitant because it’s a matter of which Bartlett is going to show up. Bartlett’s predicted finish: 1st Predicted champion: Bartlett
Sauber: Bartlett and Mendez losing at Big Tens has led to the two best wrestlers at 141 pounds potentially meeting in the semifinals instead of the finals. Bartlett should be able to get there, while Minnesota’s Vance VomBaur could get in Mendez’s way. That being said, the Buckeye should be up to the task, though I think Bartlett beats him for the third time this season. A quarterfinal upset by Northern Colorado’s Andrew Alirez over No. 1 seed Hardy of Nebraska shakes the bracket up, though, and leads to Bartlett securing a victory in the finals over Northern Iowa’s Cael Happel after Happel takes out Alirez in the semis. Bartlett’s predicted finish: 1st Predicted champion: Bartlett
149 Pounds: Shayne Van Ness
Cobler: Van Ness has had quite the year. He was rolling toward an undefeated season when he ran into Nebraska’s Ridge Lovett, who totally dominated the Nittany Lions wrestler in the team’s dual. Van Ness rebounded and got things rolling again by taking out another top wrestler in the country in Iowa’s Kyle Parco, but then suffered a head-scratching loss to Illinois’ Kannon Webster in the Big Ten semis. With Van Ness being the No. 3 seed, he’s got Lovett (No. 2 seed) and Webster (No. 7) on his side of the bracket. Those two will face off in the quarterfinals with Van Ness getting either North Carolina’s Lachlan McNeil or Rider’s Sammy Alvarez, who was a solid wrestler for Rutgers for a couple of a seasons in the past. I see Van Ness making the semifinals against Lovett, who sends the Penn Stater to the consolation bracket, but by a much narrow margin this time around. Van Ness’ predicted finish: 3rd Predicted champion: Virginia Tech’s Caleb Henson
Sauber: Van Ness has had a great season, but has mixed in a couple inexplicable losses. The first was to one of the best wrestlers in the class, Lovett. Losing to Lovett wasn’t inexplicable, but the way Van Ness lost — by making a few mistakes and dropping the match by major decision — was. Then a loss to Illinois’ Kannon Webster, who is 14-6, at Big Tens dropped Van Ness to the consolation bracket. Still, when he’s at his best the Nittany Lion is as good as any other 149-pounder in the country. He’ll have a difficult path, with a potential quarterfinal against North Carolina’s Lachlan McNeil, a semifinal against Lovett and a final against Virginia Tech’s undefeated Caleb Henson. Van Ness can pull it off, but I tend to think Lovett gets the best of him again and he drops to the consolation bracket. Van Ness’ predicted finish: 4th Predicted champion: Nebraska’s Ridge Lovett
157 Pounds: Tyler Kasak
Cobler: Last year was Kasak’s first trip to the NCAA championships, and he came out flat. He dropped his first round match, but did something only eight other wrestlers have done before. The No. 1 seed in this year’s championships rattled off seven straight victories to finish third at 149 pounds last year in Kansas City. Fast forward to this year, and the true sophomore looks poised and setup to claim his first national title. He should have no problem reaching the finals. It’s going to be a matter of who Kasak faces in that finals match, which could be one of a couple of guys in Cornell’s Meyer Shapiro (No. 2 seed), Nebraska’s Antrell Taylor (No. 3), Northern Colorado’s Vinny Zerban (No. 7) or North Carolina State’s Ed Scott (No. 22). For Centre County fans, they’ll see a local face in Bellefonte grad Jude Swisher competing here too for Penn. Kasak’s predicted finish: 1st Predicted champion: Kasak
Sauber: Kasak has had as much success as any Nittany Lion this season, despite having a loss on his record. That defeat came by injury default to Maryland’s Ethen Miller in a match the Nittany Lion was favored in and was leading 1-0 at the time he was forced to default and enter the concussion protocol. His toughest competition at the weight won’t come until the final when No. 2 seed Shapiro of Cornell could be waiting. That being said, Shapiro has potential roadblocks in the second round (Iowa’s Jacori Teemer) and semifinals (Nebraska’s Taylor). Shapiro should still be able to navigate that path, though, but Kasak will still be too much to handle in the finals. Kasak’s predicted finish: 1st Predicted champion: Kasak
165 Pounds: Mitchell Mesenbrink
Cobler: This title is basically Mesenbrink’s to lose. Throughout the year, he and Iowa’s Mikey Caliendo were considered to be favorites to win the weight class. However, it all changed when Mesenbrink racked up a technical fall on Caliendo during the Jan. 31 dual. These two are the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds, but the Penn State wrestler has proven, even though he edged Caliendo in the Big Ten finals, that he’s head and shoulders above everyone else. The Nittany Lions wrestler would’ve won his first NCAA title last year, but a minor hiccup in his own thinking allowed Iowa State’s David Carr to win. This year, Mesenbrink along with Minnesota’s Gable Steveson are pretty much locks to win titles barring any type of setbacks. Mesenbrink’s predicted finish: 1st Predicted champion: Mesenbrink
Sauber: One of the biggest surprises in the finals at Big Tens was that Mesenbrink didn’t get bonus points in his championship bout against Iowa’s Caliendo. That says a lot about how incredible Mesenbrink has been and how well Caliendo wrestled. That being said, there is no reason to pick against the Nittany Lion at this point. A semifinal matchup with Utah Valley’s Terrell Barraclough — who transferred from Penn State after being a steady contributor — would be interesting, as would a matchup with Caliendo in the finals. But nobody at 165 pounds in the country can touch Mesenbrink right now. Maybe he’ll get knocked off, but if he did it would likely be the upset of the tournament. Mesenbrink’s predicted finish: 1st Predicted champion: Mesenbrink
174 Pounds: Levi Haines
Cobler: This weight class is pretty much cut and dry as well. Haines, along with Missouri’s Keegan O’Toole, have proven that there isn’t too much in their way to making the NCAA finals for a rematch from a dual meetup on Dec. 22. It was a bout that had plenty of controversy, as it appeared as though Haines should’ve been awarded a takedown in sudden victory. That didn’t happen. Instead, the wrestling continued and O’Toole came out with a winning takedown. Wrestling fans want to see this one again, and there’s no way it shouldn’t come to fruition. The one wildcard that could keep it from happening is Oklahoma State’s Dean Hamiti, who Haines would face in the semifinals. Haines’ predicted finish: 1st Predicted champion: Haines
Sauber: Haines has only one loss on his record this season and it came to the No. 1 seed — O’Toole. That’s the matchup many will be hoping to see in the final, with the first bout going to sudden victory and the Tiger pulling out the victory back in December. There will be opportunities for either of the top two in the class to stumble on their way to that clash, though most of those will be in O’Toole’s way. He could see several wrestlers in Intermat’s top 10 at the class, including Stanford’s Lorenzo Norman in the second round, Ohio State’s Carson Kharchla or Nebraska’s Lenny Pinto in the quarters and Ohio’s Garrett Thompson in the semifinals. That being said, the toughest task will be Oklahoma State’s Dean Hamiti, who Haines would face in the semifinals. Even with all of those potential pitfalls, I think the rematch happens and Haines gets revenge. Haines’ predicted finish: 1st Predicted champion: Haines
184 Pounds: Carter Starocci
Cobler: When the season began, Starocci, who is the No. 1 seed, faced off with the No. 2 seed in Northern Iowa’s Parker Keckeisen in the NWCA All-Star Classic. It was a match that didn’t count against either’s records, but it was a match that was still wrestled, and a Starocci win in sudden victory. These two are expected to face off again in the NCAA finals with the Penn State wrestler aiming to claim his unprecedented fifth NCAA crown. Everyone will want to try and stop that from happening, but there is just no one stopping Starocci from making the finals. Keckeisen, on the other hand, may not make the finals as Minnesota’s Max McEnelly is on his side of the bracket, and had a coming out party of sorts during the Big Ten championships two weeks ago when he faced Starocci in the finals. There is another local wrestler competing in the NCAA championships here too in Penns Valley graduate Malachi DuVall, who is competing for George Mason. Starocci’s predicted finish: 1st Predicted champion: Starocci
Sauber: This weight is all about two potential matchups — a semifinal bout between McEnelly and Keckeisen and the final between the winner and Starocci. Two weeks ago it would’ve been all about Keckeisen and Starocci, but McEnelly’s performance against the Nittany Lion at Big Tens might turn this into a three-horse race. Still, Keckeisen hasn’t lost since 2023 in the NCAA finals when he fell to former Nittany Lion Aaron Brooks. He and Starocci should face off for the 184-pound title in what could be a tight bout. I’ll say Starocci gets the job done and becomes the sport’s first five-time individual NCAA champion. Starocci’s predicted finish: 1st Predicted champion: Starocci
197 Pounds: Josh Barr
Cobler: There is a big question here: How healthy is Barr? He was rolling through the Big Ten championships and reached the semifinals, where he suffered a 4-1 loss in sudden victory to Michigan’s Jacob Cardenas, who went on to win the Big Ten title and earned the No. 1 seed at this weight. When Barr dropped into the consolation bracket, he faced off with Minnesota’s Isaiah Salazar in the semifinals, where he suffered a left leg injury. It forced him to injury default out of the Big Ten championships. Coach Cael Sanderson said during Monday’s media day that Barr is ready to go, so his first match on Thursday will be the telling sign of just how ready he is. I just don’t think he’s healthy enough to claim a title or make the finals here. Barr’s predicted finish: 3rd Predicted champion: Cal State Bakersfield’s AJ Ferrari
Sauber: This weight might be the most up in the air for any Penn Stater that has already become a proven commodity. Barr injury defaulted out of Big Tens with an injury but should be good to go in Philadelphia. He’ll be a part of one of the more interesting brackets at the tournament, with a number of wrestlers who could win the title — including Barr. His path will not be easy, with potential matchups against Oregon State’s Trey Munoz in the second round, Lehigh’s Michael Beard (a former Nittany Lion) in the quarterfinals, and Cardenas — the No. 1 seed — in the semifinals. Barr should get to the semis and split his matchups with Cardenas. I’ll give the Nittany Lion the rubber match, but either Cal State Bakersfield’s A.J. Ferrari or Iowa’s Stephen Buchanan would likely be waiting in the finals. That’s where I have Barr’s run ending. Barr’s predicted finish: 2nd Predicted champion: Buchanan
285 Pounds: Greg Kerkvliet
Cobler: There hasn’t been too much to talk about with this weight class. It’s been Kerkvliet and Minnesota’s Gable Steveson all year long in a class of their own. This is one of those bets that people would be saying: would you take Kerkvliet/Steveson or the field? In this case, I’m taking Kerkvliet/Steveson because there just is no one else that’s going to derail this matchup from happening. Oklahoma State’s Wyatt Hendrickson could as he should end up facing Kerkvliet in the semifinals, but the defending NCAA champion has already beaten Hendrickson twice. Kerkvliet’s predicted finish: 2nd Predicted champion: Steveson
Sauber: This weight, much like Big Tens, will be about waiting things out until Kerkvliet meets Steveson in the finals. Sure, Oklahoma State’s Hendrickson could give Kerkvliet trouble in the semifinals, but I don’t see that as much of an issue for the Nittany Lion. Unfortunately for him, Steveson has been an issue for almost any wrestler he’s ever faced. I could wax poetic about a clash between two elite heavy weights and former national champions, but I think everyone knows how this ends. Kerkvliet is elite. Steveson is one of the best to ever do it. Kerkvliet’s predicted finish: 2nd Predicted champion: Steveson
Team outlook
Cobler: As I’ve said through several of these weights, there isn’t anyone that’s going to stop Penn State from winning another team title. It’ll be the Nittany Lions’ 13th NCAA crown, and will mark them the champions in 12 of the last 14 championships. Last year, Penn State set the team scoring mark with 172.5 points and a new winning margin of 100 points. This year, look for the Nittany Lions to have seven finalists. They will set a new champions mark with six, break their scoring mark from last year, and possibly a new margin of victory mark. Penn State’s predicted finish: 1st Predicted champion: Penn State
Sauber: Penn State is going to win the national title — again. And once again it’s just about how many individual champions they crown and how many points they score in the process. The Nittany Lions and head coach Cael Sanderson have created an enormous gap between themselves and whoever is second. That could be either Oklahoma State or Iowa, but either way the rest of the country is fighting for second. Maybe David Taylor can get the Cowboys closer in due time, but he’s not anywhere close in year one. Penn State’s predicted finish: 1st Predicted champion: Penn State
This story was originally published March 19, 2025 at 12:06 PM.
