Here’s a way-too-early look at Penn State football’s 2021 opponents
The dust hasn’t even settled from the 2020 college football season yet, with Alabama just being crowned the national champion on Monday night. But, here we are, already looking ahead to Penn State’s 2021 season.
The Nittany Lions — who ended the year 4-5 to finish with a losing record for the first time since 2004 — are looking to ensure last season was merely a blip on the radar. Head coach James Franklin and Co. will have a lot to evaluate this offseason, especially heading into a 2021 season that features formidable opponents early instead of one or two usual FCS punching bags.
Of course, there are still underclassmen who are deciding whether or not to enter the NFL Draft (the underclassmen declaration deadline is Monday), seniors who are deciding if they’ll use the NCAA’s extra year of eligibility and players heading to different programs via the transfer portal across college football.
Still, to give Penn State fans an idea of what to look out for each week, we took a look at each of the Nittany Lions’ 12 opponents this fall using what we know now.
WEEK 1 AT WISCONSIN (SEPT. 4)
Final AP Poll ranking: N/A
Record in 2020: 4-3
Synopsis: Wisconsin had one of the most wacky seasons in the country, with three regular-season games canceled. The Badgers, at times, looked dominant — beating Illinois and Michigan by 38 points apiece, and defeating Wake Forest in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl by two scores. And their three losses came at the hands of teams ranked in the top 20 in the final AP Poll. Quarterback Graham Mertz will head into his second season as the starter in 2021 with playmakers like tight end Jake Ferguson around him and a seasoned offensive line in front of him.
A road game against a Big Ten foe to start the season is never an easy task — and it especially won’t be for a Penn State team that will need time to figure itself out after a rough 2020.
WEEK 2 VS. BALL STATE (SEPT. 11)
Final AP Poll ranking: No. 23
Record in 2020: 7-1
Synopsis: Ball State will carry a lot of momentum into its 2021 season. The Cardinals ended the 2020 season on a seven-game winning streak capped off by wins over top-25 teams in Buffalo and San Jose State. They also finished ranked in the final AP Poll for the first time in program history. An offense that scored nearly 35 points a game is expected to return veteran quarterback Drew Plitt but loses star running back Caleb Huntley, who rushed for seven consecutive 100-yard games before being sidelined with an injury midseason.
This certainly isn’t your typical early-season tune-up game for Penn State. After returning from a road trip against what should be a tough Wisconsin team, the Nittany Lions will have their hands full in their home opener at Beaver Stadium.
WEEK 3 VS. AUBURN (SEPT. 18)
Final AP Poll ranking: N/A
Record in 2020: 6-5
Synopsis: Auburn is coming off a rocky year in which it ended up firing head coach Gus Malzahn after eight seasons. The Tigers brought in new head coach Bryan Harsin, who won 10 or more games in five of his seven seasons at Boise State. Regardless of how much the team has or hasn’t gelled by Week 3 of the 2021 season under a first-year head coach and overhauled coaching staff, the Tigers’ roster still boasts SEC-level talent. Quarterback Bo Nix and star running back Tank Bigsby will be back this fall.
Though it’s hard to predict how good Auburn will be next season, this one should be far from a cakewalk for Penn State.
WEEK 4 VS. VILLANOVA (SEPT. 25)
Final AP Poll ranking: N/A (season canceled)
Record in 2020: N/A
Synopsis: Villanova — whose football program plays in the Colonial Athletic Association of the FCS subdivision — didn’t play a single game last fall after the CAA postponed its season. The Wildcats and the rest of the conference will play a six-game schedule this spring, though, which kicks off March 6. We won’t have a clear idea of what to expect from Villanova until it plays this spring, but the Wildcats have struggled against FBS opponents in the past — going 1-3 since 2014 in such games.
These two programs have only met eight times before on the gridiron, with the last matchup coming in 1951 (a Villanova victory). This game should allow Penn State to catch its breath and pick up an easy win before heading into Big Ten play.
WEEK 5 AT IOWA (OCT. 9)
Final AP Poll ranking: No. 16
Record in 2020: 6-2
Synopsis: Iowa ended 2020 on a six-game winning streak before its final two games of the season were canceled. The Hawkeyes won most of their games decidedly, too — with five of their six victories coming by at least two touchdowns. A team that blew the doors off Penn State last season in a 41-21 rout in Beaver Stadium returns its starting quarterback in Spencer Petras, its starting running back in Tyler Goodson and four starting offensive linemen. All-Big Ten defensive end Zach VanValkenburg also recently announced that he will return for a sixth season.
Even coming off a bye week, this game will be a test for Penn State — especially on the road in Kinnick Stadium.
WEEK 6 VS. ILLINOIS (OCT. 16)
Final AP Poll ranking: N/A
Record in 2020: 2-6
Synopsis: Illinois concluded its disastrous 2020 by firing head coach Lovie Smith after five seasons. The Fighting Illini brought in head coach Bret Bielema, who won three Big Ten championships as Wisconsin’s head coach from 2006 to 2012. Even with a new face at the helm, it’s hard to imagine Illinois dramatically improving from a two-win season last year that ended with a 56-21 blowout loss to Penn State. The team returns standout running back Chase Brown but loses star wide receiver Josh Imatorbhebhe and All-Big Ten defensive end Owen Carney Jr.
After a handful of challenging opponents up to this point in the season, this game will give Penn State a chance to collect itself before it heads into the second half of the season.
WEEK 7 AT MICHIGAN STATE (OCT. 23)
Final AP Poll ranking: N/A
Record in 2020: 2-5
Synopsis: Michigan State struggled in 2020 under first-year head coach Mel Tucker. The Spartans beat a top-25 Northwestern team in late November but ended their season with a 40-point loss to Ohio State followed by a 39-24 defeat at the hands of Penn State. Michigan State struggled to score for most of last season, being outscored 246-126 by its seven Big Ten opponents. Quarterback Payton Thorne and wide receiver Jalen Nailor — who both flashed upside toward the end of the 2020 season — will return. So will second-leading receiver Jayden Reed.
Following what should be a fairly easy win over Illinois, Penn State should have an opportunity to build some momentum here by picking up another win before it takes on Indiana in Week 8.
WEEK 8 VS. INDIANA (OCT. 30)
Final AP Poll ranking: No. 12
Record in 2020: 6-2
Synopsis: Indiana had one the best seasons in program history in 2020. The Hoosiers opened the year by upsetting then-No. 7 Penn State 36-35 in an overtime thriller before winning five of their next six games. Even after star quarterback Michael Penix Jr. tore his ACL in the team’s late-November win over Maryland, Indiana found a way to beat a top-25 Wisconsin team the following week. The return of a healthy Penix Jr. surrounded by star wide receiver Ty Fryfogle and starting running back Stevie Scott should give the Hoosiers enough firepower to build on their breakout campaign.
This game will be a challenge for Penn State, even in front of a Beaver Stadium crowd (assuming fans are allowed to attend games this fall).
WEEK 9 AT MARYLAND (NOV. 6)
Final AP Poll ranking: N/A
Record in 2020: 2-3
Synopsis: Maryland is another program that got hit hard by the impact of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. The Terrapins were only able to play five games and had four of their final six contests canceled. They did manage to beat Penn State, though, in a 35-19 win in Beaver Stadium — which marked only the Terrapins’ third victory over the Nittany Lions ever. Maryland returns quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa, who flashed a ton of potential last season, as well as wide receivers Dontay Demus Jr. and Rakim Jarrett.
Though Maryland caught Penn State in a down year in 2020, this matchup should play out a bit differently. Look for this to be a much more competitive game than it was last season.
WEEK 10 VS. MICHIGAN (NOV. 13)
Final AP Poll ranking: N/A
Record in 2020: 2-4
Synopsis: Michigan — much like Penn State — greatly underachieved in 2020. The Wolverines were ranked No. 16 in the Week 1 AP Poll and were expected to compete for a Big Ten East title. But after losing three of their first four games, it was clear that’s not how their year would play out. Michigan also fell to Penn State 27-17, giving the Nittany Lions their first win of 2020 in late November. The Wolverines return quarterback Cade McNamara, who was given the starting job late in the year, as well as leading wide receiver Ronnie Bell and leading rusher Hassan Haskins.
This game should give Penn State a chance to iron out any wrinkles and build a bit more confidence before it takes on Ohio State with a spot in the Big Ten title game potentially on the line.
WEEK 11 VS. OHIO STATE (NOV. 20)
Final AP Poll ranking: No. 2
Record in 2020: 7-1
Synopsis: Ohio State ended the year as the runner-up, even though it was routed by Alabama in the National Championship. The Buckeyes had three games get canceled but they pretty much steamrolled through the rest of their Big Ten slate — which included beating Penn State 38-25 in Week 2. Ohio State must now replace quarterback Justin Fields, who’s been one of the best players in college football the past two seasons, and three starting offensive linemen. Still, look for the Buckeyes to reload in 2021 and again be the favorite to win the Big Ten.
For Penn State to get over the hump as a program, it needs to break its four-year losing streak to Ohio State. The Nittany Lions will have a better chance of doing that this fall than they did last year — how much better remains to be seen.
WEEK 12 VS. RUTGERS (NOV. 27)
Final AP Poll ranking: N/A
Record in 2020: 3-6
Synopsis: Rutgers hasn’t had a winning season since 2014, so its 2020 campaign was just par for the course. The Scarlet Knights got off to a rocky start in head coach Greg Schiano’s first season back by only winning one of their first five games. They managed to win two of their final four games, though — a stretch in which they fell to Penn State 23-7 to give the Nittany Lions their second win of 2020. Rutgers returns standout wide receiver Bo Melton and leading rusher Isaih Pacheco but loses starting quarterback Noah Vedral.
After a tough contest against Ohio State, Penn State should be able to end its regular season on a high note against Rutgers at home.
