Win or lose, how could the Big Ten championship impact Penn State football’s playoff path?

Penn State’s playoff future will be on the line Saturday night when it takes on Oregon for the Big Ten title. The Nittany Lions will have a chance to win their first conference championship in nearly a decade, with the last coming in 2016.

What happens if the Nittany Lions defeat the Ducks? Or if they lose?

Let’s take a look:

What a victory means

The biggest thing Penn State gets out of a win is a bye into the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff. And for a team that is already playing an extra game this weekend, an extra week off could be very important when it comes to getting rested and ready for a potential run to the national championship.

From a seeding standpoint, there are a couple of different outcomes that are possible with a Penn State win, in large part because its seeding will be impacted by the outcome of the SEC title game between Georgia and Texas. If the Nittany Lions and Bulldogs win, then PSU would likely be the No. 1 overall seed with Georgia currently sitting two spots behind it in the rankings.

If the Nittany Lions and Longhorns win, it’s still possible — and potentially even likely — that Penn State would jump to No. 1 because its win over No. 1 Oregon would be more impressive than a win over No. 5 Georgia. That being said, it’s also possible that Texas stays ahead of Penn State because it’s currently ranked at No. 2, one spot higher than the Nittany Lions.

With a No. 1 seed, Penn State would face the winner of the 8/9 first-round matchup (currently Tennessee at Ohio State). With the No. 2 seed, the Nittany Lions would play the winner of the 7/10 first-round matchup (currently Indiana at Georgia).

And as far as where the Nittany Lions would play with a win, that is set in stone. The Big Ten champion will head to Pasadena to play in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1.

What a loss means

Penn State would no longer have a first-round bye if it loses, but it would likely have a home game at Beaver Stadium. The Nittany Lions would be highly unlikely to fall to worse than the No. 8 seed in the College Football Playoff bracket, even with a lopsided loss, and the Nos. 5-8 seeds will all host first-round games.

The two most likely outcomes are the No. 5 or No. 6 seed because, otherwise, the playoff committee would be severely punishing the Nittany Lions for earning a spot in the conference championship game. In fact, that should make the team’s floor where it is now — the No. 5 seed — but a blowout could potentially lead to a sharper drop in the rankings. If the game is close, then the same logic that applies in a win should apply in a loss.

If Penn State loses and Texas loses, the Longhorns should drop below the Nittany Lions because their loss to Georgia would be a worse loss than a loss to Oregon. And if the Bulldogs lose the SEC title, then Georgia should remain below Penn State, as should a Notre Dame team that is currently No. 4 and doesn’t have a conference to win a title in.

Earning the No. 5 seed could lead to an easy path to the semifinals for the Nittany Lions. Right now, the Big 12 champion would be the No. 12 seed, which would head to State College for a first-round game. The winner of that matchup would currently move on to face Boise State in the second round — by far the least intimidating of the teams currently set to get a bye.

It is possible that changes, though, if Clemson wins the ACC and becomes the No. 12 seed, or if the Big 12 champion jumps Alabama and bumps the Crimson Tide down to the No. 12 seed.

While some of those paths may seem appealing, the uncertainty is what makes winning the Big Ten so appealing — because the bye is a certainty and guaranteed spot in the quarterfinals.

Either way, there’ll be plenty of guessing and analyzing ahead of the release of the seedings, which will occur Sunday afternoon during ESPN’s College Football Playoff Selection Show.

This story was originally published December 7, 2024 at 10:00 AM.

Jon Sauber

Centre Daily Times

(814) 231-6461

Jon Sauber covers Penn State football and men’s basketball for the Centre Daily Times. He earned his B.A. in digital and print journalism from Penn State and his M.A. in sports journalism from IUPUI. His previous stops include jobs at The Indianapolis Star, the NCAA, and Rivals.