How can Penn State football knock off Oregon for the Big Ten title? Here are 2 key matchups

Penn State heads to Indianapolis as a slight underdog in its matchup with Oregon for the Big Ten title. How can the Nittany Lions pull off the upset in Lucas Oil Stadium and win their first conference championship since 2016?

Here are the two key matchups to Saturday’s game that we believe will determine the outcome:

Jon Sauber: Oregon’s wide receivers vs. Penn State’s secondary

This game is all about what Penn State can do to nullify Oregon’s speed. That applies when the Nittany Lions are on offense, with how they can find ways to create explosive plays against a fast and physical Duck defense, and even more so when they’re on defense. The Ducks have one of the fastest receiving groups in the country, and offensive coordinator Will Stein maximizes it.

Both of the Oregon’s leading wideouts — Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart — are burners who can run with almost anyone in the country. They’re both big plays waiting to happen. And their quarterback, Dillon Gabriel, excels with his accuracy and anticipation, getting the ball to his playmakers in space and allowing them to break big gains.

And Penn State’s defensive success is predicated on stopping those big plays.

Defensive coordinator Tom Allen’s group has only given up 80 passing plays of 10 or more yards this season — good for 13th in the country — and his defense is built around the idea that it won’t get beat for explosive gains. In fact, it’s only given up eight passing plays that have gone for 30-plus yards (10th in the nation). Oregon’s offense, mind you, has 130 10-plus yard passing plays (ranking 16th) and 21 30-plus yarders (ranking 20th).

This is going to be a battle of strengths, and it’s paramount that the Nittany Lion cornerbacks — led by A.J. Harris, Jalen Kimber and Zion Tracy — don’t get beat over the top. And if they do, the team’s safeties — led by Jaylen Reed and Zakee Wheatley — will have to be there to provide help. It helps that the group has been so proficient at limiting those plays, largely because those two groups are arguably the best positions on Penn State’s roster. And frankly, Harris might be the most underrated corner in the country.

Saturday’s game is going to say a lot about this Nittany Lion defense. It’s a group that has been dominant for the majority of the 2024 season and is third in ESPN analyst Bill Connelly’s SP+, a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. But PSU also hasn’t faced a quarterback as accurate as Gabriel with weapons to make things happen like Johnson and Stewart.

If the secondary shows up against the Ducks like it has against other opponents, there will be little doubt about how good it is and the heights it can lead the program to in the postseason.

Josh Moyer: Oregon’s defensive line vs. Penn State’s offensive line

I like where you’re going with your pick, Jon, but I think you might be getting just slightly ahead of yourself. Both passing games will undoubtedly prove important, but the difference-making roots to Saturday’s Big Ten championship will start in the trenches. After all, neither team can complete passes if their quarterback’s on his back.

We’ve seen Oregon triumph this season over other elite defensive lines, such as Ohio State and Michigan. But we haven’t seen that yet from Penn State — remember how many offensive touchdowns Penn State scored against the Buckeyes? — which is why I’m focused on the matchup here.

Oregon boasts one of the top-10 defensive lines in the country, and it was the only Big Ten program besides Michigan with three defensive linemen who earned unanimous all-conference honors. The Ducks rank No. 6 nationally in sacks (39), the most in the Big Ten, and are widely seen as the conference’s best defense behind Ohio State and Penn State.

Oregon still posted 30-plus points against the Buckeyes. As for Penn State? Against Ohio State, James Franklin’s squad finished with its fewest points, fewest yards and fewest first downs of the season.

Behind Oregon’s defensive line, directed by Broyles Award finalist/defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi, those kinds of PSU struggles have the potential to happen again. Oregon edge rusher Matayo Uiagalelei has wrecked opposing backfields to the tune of 12.5 tackles-for-loss and 10.5 sacks, a half-sack ahead of future Penn State first-rounder Abdul Carter. Oregon’s two other leaders on the line, 295-pound DE Jordan Burch and 310-pound DT Derrick Harmon, combined for 18.5 tackles-for-loss in the regular season.

The defensive line has consistently penetrated the backfield, becoming one of just 27 teams to nationally hold opposing rushing offenses to 3.6 yards per carry or under. Statistically, Penn State has played just two comparable run defenses — against Ohio State and Minnesota. The latter game, a 26-25 PSU win, didn’t come easy. And both games saw mediocre success on the ground. (It won’t get any easier as Penn State RT Anthony Donkoh remains out, after suffering a right knee injury against Minnesota.)

Oregon is going to score. So Penn State’s own offense will have to respond — and that will only happen if the offensive line outplays the Ducks in the trenches. It’s the matchup many casual fans will overlook, but it could be the one that decides everything.

This story was originally published December 6, 2024 at 1:36 PM.

Jon Sauber

Centre Daily Times

(814) 231-6461

Jon Sauber covers Penn State football and men’s basketball for the Centre Daily Times. He earned his B.A. in digital and print journalism from Penn State and his M.A. in sports journalism from IUPUI. His previous stops include jobs at The Indianapolis Star, the NCAA, and Rivals.