Penn State vs. Oregon: Final thoughts & analysis of PSU’s Big Ten title matchup with the Ducks
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Big Ten championship game
Penn State is headed to Indianapolis to take on Oregon for the Big Ten title. Read below for everything you need to know before the game.
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Penn State will play its final game before the College Football Playoff when it takes on the Oregon Ducks in the Big Ten championship game. The Nittany Lions will play the game in Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Here are some final thoughts, questions and predictions ahead of the Nittany Lions’ matchup with the Ducks.
Get to Gabriel
This will be the best quarterback Penn State has faced this season. Dillon Gabriel is in his sixth year of college football and has played well at all three of his stops — UCF, Oklahoma and now Oregon. He’s a smaller quarterback, but beats teams with accuracy, anticipation and mobility. The best way to limit Gabriel and get him away from those things he does best is by pressuring him and making him uncomfortable each time he drops back. He hasn’t dealt with immense pressure off the edges all season, but one of the teams that fared best against him was Wisconsin, and the Badgers did that with a combination of sticky coverage and a good pass rush.
Of course, this Penn State defense is one of the best the Ducks have faced this year and the best pass rush they’ve faced, period. Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton are two of the best in the country at getting to the quarterback and the latter is the healthiest he’s been in over a month. It’s fair to say that Penn State’s ability to get to Gabriel — and bring him down, because the lefty quarterback is also very mobile — will be one of the determining factors Saturday night in Indianapolis.
Penn State’s offensive line will be tested
There has not been much discussion about the Penn State offensive line and that’s usually a good thing. That position group is one of the only ones that is usually better off going unnoticed — especially in the passing game — because usually when it’s being discussed its because it’s struggling. The Nittany Lions haven’t dealt with that issue this season but they also haven’t had to handle pass rushers like Matayo Uiagalelei and Jordan Burch — who have combined for 19 sacks this season. And Penn State will have to do it without usual starting right tackle Anthony Donkoh, who is out with a long-term injury he suffered two weeks ago against Minnesota.
It will instead be Nolan Rucci who is tasked with handling the right edge of the offensive line. Penn State head coach James Franklin commended Rucci for his performance against Maryland, but this is going to be a different type of challenge. I wouldn’t be overly surprised to see a little extra help — with some running backs or tight ends tasked with chipping defenders on the right side on their way out to run their routes. Penn State’s — and Rucci’s — ability to slow the Oregon pass rush will have a massive impact on just how successful the offense can be in the game.
Allar’s moment in the spotlight
Penn State hasn’t faced a defense as fast as this one this season. And you don’t have to take my word for it.
“As far as what stood out to me on film, I think it’s just their overall team speed on defense,” quarterback Drew Allar said. “I think they’re probably the fastest defense we’ve played yet in terms of team speed overall.”
The Ducks, as Allar also later said, aren’t just fast either. They’re physical, too, and that applies up front and in the secondary. This is going to be a different type of test than the ones the quarterback has faced all season, and he’s going to have a chance to silence those who have doubted him despite a very successful second season as a starter.
Allar has the arm strength to make any throw on the field, but he’s going to have to be as precise as ever because of how quickly the Oregon secondary can close in on the ball once it goes in the air. But this isn’t just about taking care of the ball. Allar will have a chance to have his moment in the sun, taking on one of the best defenses in the country on the biggest state. How he performs Saturday won’t make or break the Nittany Lions when it comes to the College Football Playoff, but it could be a good indication of just how high the team’s ceiling is this season.
Final predictions
Penn State 21, Oregon 20: I have gone back and forth on this, but ended up where I started — with this being the biggest moment, to date, of the James Franklin era. The Nittany Lions come into the game in a good spot to compete with the Ducks thanks to their elite defense. And I think the offense will end up doing enough to get this one over the finish line, earning the Big Ten title and the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff.
MVP: DE Abdul Carter. If this defense is going to play like I think it will, then players like Carter will have to shine. And with how he’s playing right now, there’s no reason to think he won’t. Carter is the best pass rusher in the country and arguably the best defensive player in all of college football. He’s going to be a problem for the Ducks to deal with. I’ll say he finishes with two tackles for loss and a strip sack on Oregon’s last offensive drive that seals the win for Penn State.
The last word
Penn State head coach James Franklin on Oregon going undefeated in its first season in the Big Ten
“Oregon’s been doing a good job for a long time now, under a number of different coaches, and (Oregon head coach) Dan (Lanning has) taken it to the next level. They’ve done a phenomenal job. It’s also a place with tremendous resources as well, and they built that thing to compete at the highest level. I got some pretty strong relationships with Oregon, and have for a long time, not only on the coaching staff, but in other areas as well. And they’re committed to win at the highest level, and have been that way for a number of years now. Dan and his staff have done a phenomenal job. But just like all of us, it takes a major commitment from everybody involved, and they’ve done a very nice job of that. I think Dan’s background and experience in the SEC, also helps. I think he’s able to kind of bring together two different worlds and the experiences he’s learned from both. So, very valuable.”
This story was originally published December 5, 2024 at 5:15 AM.
