How will Penn State do at the NCAA Wrestling Championships? See our predictions
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Penn State enters NCAAs favored to win a fifth straight title.
- Seven No. 1 seeds anchor Penn State; multiple individual champs projected.
- Projections predict record points, eight finalists and several titles.
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2026 NCAA Wrestling Championships
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Penn State’s wrestling team has been setting program and NCAA history all season long.
The Nittany Lions will aim to set more program history once the NCAA championships get started Thursday in Cleveland at Rocket Arena. They are the favorites to win , which would be their fifth team title in a row.
Penn State has won four in a row three times, but never five.
So, here’s a weight-by-weight breakdown of how the Nittany Lions will do:
125 pounds: Luke Lilledahl
Nate Cobler: Lilledahl is the first of Penn State’s seven No. 1 seeded wrestlers. Usually, the No. 1 seed has the easiest path to the finals, but in Lilledahl’s case, he’s got a tough bracket to navigate. He could see darkhorse in West Virginia’s Jett Strickenberger in the second round, and from there it could be Iowa’s Dean Peterson, who has beaten the Nittany Lions wrestler in the past. In the semifinals, he could see Oklahoma State’s Troy Spratley or Lehigh’s Sheldon Seymour. Should Lilledahl make the finals, he could get either Ohio State’s Nic Bouzakis or Virginia Tech’s Eddie Ventresca.
Lilledahl’s finish: 1st
Champion: Lilledahl
Jon Sauber: If Lilledahl is going to win his first NCAA title, he’s going to go through a rough path to do it. The Penn State 125-pounder should get to the semifinals with relative ease, with a matchup against WVU’s Jett Strickenberger that’s probably tougher on paper than it will be in reality, and a rematch against Iowa’s Dean Peterson in the quarters. I’d guess Troy Spratley is waiting for him in the semis and that could end up being his toughest bout of the tournament. If he gets to the finals, look for him to wrap up his first individual national title.
Lilledahl’s finish: 1st
Champion: Lilledahl
133 pounds: Marcus Blaze
Cobler: As the No. 3 seed, Blaze actually got a decent draw. However, he’s going to feel like he’s wrestling the Big Ten championships again with five conference opponents in his part of the bracket for NCAAs. He’ll likely face Iowa’s Drake Ayala in the quarterfinals. When he gets to the semifinals, Blaze could see either Illinois’ Lucas Byrd, who is the defending NCAA champ, or Ohio State’s Ben Davino. I see Blaze making the finals of his first NCAA championships, where he’ll face either Oklahoma State’s Jax Forrest, who was competing for Bishop McCort in Johnstown in November, or Virginia Tech’s Aaron Seidel, who is a three-time PIAA champion and four time finalist.
Blaze’s finish: 2nd
Champion: Forrest
Sauber: There might not be a more exciting bracket than 133 pounds, and Blaze is a big part of that. He’s in a weight with Oklahoma State’s Jax Forrest, Ohio State’s Ben Davino, Virginia Tech’s Aaron Seidel, Illinois’ Lucas Byrd and Arizona State’s Kyler Larkin. While he and the first three listed have the best chance at a title, Byrd has won one before and Larkin shouldn’t be slept on. I think we get the semis everyone wants to see with Blaze against Davino and Forrest against Seidel, with the Blaze and Forrest winning — and the Oklahoma State Cowboy taking his first national title after beginning the season in high school.
Blaze’s finish: 2nd
Champion: Forrest
141 pounds: Braeden Davis
Cobler: Davis didn’t do himself any favors by finishing seventh in the Big Ten. He was given the No. 14 seed for NCAAs, which means he could either have a long tournament — upsetting wrestlers along the way — or a short one — getting eliminated before the weekend. Should he get past his first round opponent, the Penn State wrestler is more than likely facing Nebraska’s Brock Hardy, who pinned Davis in the January dual. Davis’ reaction to the loss wasn’t the greatest. I see Davis getting kicked to the consolation bracket early with another loss to Hardy. From there, I see him making it to the blood round — the round before the top eight wrestlers get settled — after a couple of wins in the consolation bracket. He’ll more than likely face Rutgers’ Joey Olivieri in the blood round, and suffer a loss to come up just short of being an all-American.
Davis’ finish: Does not place
Champion: Ohio State’s Jesse Mendez
Sauber: Davis has been extremely volatile for Penn State in his career and the odds of him becoming an All-American are not great. He’ll likely lose to Nebraska’s Brock Hardy in the second round and I could easily see him dropping another match quickly and not really coming close to placing. As far as the winner, this is Ohio State’s Jesse Mendez’s title to lose, and I don’t see him ceding it to anyone else.
Davis’ finish: Does not place
Champion: Mendez
149 pounds: Shayne Van Ness
Cobler: Van Ness is the second Nittany Lions wrestler to get a No. 1 seed. He doesn’t really have any speed bumps along the way to the finals. However, Van Ness sometimes doesn’t always have the best of starts, as seen this year at a couple of different times. He’ll be looking to make his first NCAA finals after winning his first Big Ten title. Look for the Penn State wrestler to face former PIAA wrestler Collin Gaj of Virginia Tech in the semifinals. He’ll more than likely see freshman phenom Jaxon Joy of Cornell in the finals.
Van Ness’ finish: 2nd
Champion: Joy
Sauber: Van Ness isn’t nearly as volatile as Davis, but he is prone to giving up an early takedown and having to wrestle from behind. He’s in search of his third top three finish in three tries at nationals and his first individual title. While he’s not been as dominant as some of Penn State’s other No. 1 seeds, he’s still been impressive when he’s at his best. This is one of those situations where you trust that head coach Cael Sanderson is going to have Van Ness at his best. It would not be a surprise if he rolls to the finals and takes on either Cornell’s Jaxon Joy or Ohio State’s Ethan Stiles, which could be one of the best matchups at the weight between those two in the quarters. I’ve got Stiles knocking him off and facing Van Ness in the finals.
Van Ness’ finish: 1st
Champion: Van Ness
157 pounds: PJ Duke
Cobler: Duke is a third No. 1 seed for the Nittany Lions. He could potentially be the first No. 1 seed for the entire NCAA tournament to fall too. During Friday morning’s quarterfinals, the freshman could get Ohio State’s Brandon Cannon, who he beat in the Big Ten quarterfinals on his way to a title. Cannon was the No. 1 wrestler in the country at the weight for most of the season. Should Duke get past the Buckeyes wrestler, he should have no problems making the finals. I see him facing off against Cornell’s Meyer Shapiro in the finals on Saturday night. Keep an eye on Bellefonte graduate Jude Swisher, who is the No. 6 seed at this weight. He topped Shapiro in the Ivy League finals, and faces the Big Red’s wrestler in the quarterfinals.
Duke’s finish: 1st
Champion: Duke
Sauber: Duke is the beneficiary of a good bracket and peaking at the right time. He was at his best at Big Tens, and shouldn’t really be challenged until he potentially faces Arizona State’s Kaleb Larkin in the semifinals — unless Ohio State’s Brandon Cannon is much better in the quarters than he was in the conference tournament. Cornell’s Meyer Shapiro facing off with Nebraska’s Antrell Taylor should be an excellent matchup if they meet in the semis, but I’ve got the winner of that bout losing to Duke, and giving him an NCAA title as a freshman.
Duke’s finish: 1st
Champion: Duke
165 pounds: Mitchell Mesenbrink
Cobler: Mesenbrink is the defending champ at this weight and is the fourth No. 1 seed for Penn State. He’s also the favorite of all the No. 1 seeds to win their respective weight. Mesenbrink had no problems in winning the Big Ten, which has the top three seeds at this weight. He may have to face a Big Ten opponent in Ohio State’s Paddy Gallagher in the second round, but after that he won’t until the finals. Mesenbrink’s toughest test in his part of the bracket will be Oklahoma State’s LaDarion Lockett, who he could see in the semifinals. Look for Mesenbrink to defend his title against either Iowa’s Michael Caliendo, who he’s 8-0 against, or Purdue’s Joey Blaze.
Mesenbrink’s finish: 1st
Champion: Mesenbrink
Sauber: In every dual we’ve predicted this year I’ve predicted Mesenbrink to cruise to a win. Why stop now? He’s a heavy favorite to win the title and will likely pick up bonus points on his way there — keeping his bonus rate at 100% on the season. He should win the Hodge Trophy as the nation’s top wrestler. As for who will get in his way, I like Purdue’s Joey Blaze to make his way to the finals where he’ll lose by major decision.
Mesenbrink’s finish: 1st
Champion: Mesenbrink
174 pounds: Levi Haines
Cobler: Haines is the fifth No. 1 seed for Penn State, and is in his final NCAA tournament. He doesn’t look like he should have any problems making the finals for the third time in his career. However, Haines may have to go through a former teammate in Oklahoma State’s Alex Facundo in the quarterfinals. In the semifinals, the Nittany Lions wrestler will more than likely face a Big Ten opponent in either Iowa’s Patrick Kennedy or Ohio State’s Carson Kharchla. Look for Haines to take on Cornell’s Simon Ruiz in a battle of unbeaten wrestlers.
Haines’ finish: 1st
Champion: Haines
Sauber: Yet another No. 1 seed for Penn State who is favored win a national title. Haines, like Mesenbrink, is after his second and should roll to the finals. There it’s a matter of whether Nebraska’s Christopher Minto can make it. Because Minto, unlike most, has given Haines a little bit of trouble in his two losses to the Penn State wrestler. If Minto gets there, this one could be an upset. And I’ve got that happening, with the Cornhusker finally coming out on top and ruining Haines’ undefeated season.
Haines’ finish: 2nd
Champion: Minto
184 pounds: Rocco Welsh
Cobler: Welsh is the sixth No. 1 seed for the Nittany Lions, and did what he had to do in order to get his first Big Ten crown. He’ll have to get through a couple of conference foes in order to make it to the finals for the second time in his career. Welsh could see either Illinois’ Chris Moore or Nebraska’s Silas Allred in the quarterfinals. In the semifinals, look for him to see Michigan’s Brock Mantanona, but Franklin and Marshall’s James Conway may have something to say about that. Conway, who was second in the country with 12 technical falls, had a stellar season at 32-2. Look for Welsh’s luck to run out in the finals though.
Welsh’s finish: 2nd
Champion: Missouri’s Aeoden Sinclair
Sauber: Welsh might be the most popular No. 1 seed to be picked to get upset — especially after all three of his bouts at Big Tens went beyond the third period, with two ending in tiebreaks and one ending in sudden victory. However, he’s on a very favorable side of the bracket, the wrestlers ranked Nos. 2-4 on InterMat all on the bottom, making it impossible for Welsh to meet any of them before the finals. Iowa’s Angelo Ferrari has been mercurial, but I’ve got him knocking off Missouri’s Aeoden Sinclair in the quarters and Minnesota’s Max McEnelly in the semis. Just to lose to Welsh in the finals.
Welsh’s finish: 1st
Champion: Welsh
197 pounds: Josh Barr
Cobler: Barr is the final No. 1 seed for Penn State. Behind Mesenbrink and Ohio State’s Jesse Mendez, he may be the next No. 1 seed as a favorite to win their weight. Barr has shown since he hit the mat in December that he is head and shoulders above the rest in the country. He may have to get past a former Pennsylvania wrestler in Virginia Tech’s Sonny Sasso in the semifinals. I see him making the finals for a second straight year, taking on Iowa State’s Rocky Elam in a battle of unbeatens.
Barr’s finish: 1st
Champion: Barr
Sauber: Barr has been nothing short of dominant this season, joining Mesenbrink with a 100% bonus rate. He won all three of his matches at Big Tens by technical fall and I could easily see him keeping that run going through the weekend. He already faced off with No. 3 seed Stephen Little of Arkansas-Little Rock, defeating him by major decision early in the season. I like Little to make a run to the finals to meet Barr, who promptly dispatches of him with another major — pushing Mesenbrink for the Hodge.
Barr’s finish: 1st
Champion: Barr
285 pounds: Cole Mirasola
Cobler: Mirasola comes in as the No. 9 seed, which doesn’t bode well for his shot at getting a NCAA title. Should he make it to the quarterfinals by beating Iowa’s Ben Kueter, he’ll more than likely get the No. 1 seed in Iowa State’s Yonger Bastida. Whether Mirasola loses to Kueter or Bastida, he’ll get a favorable draw in the consolation bracket to make a run toward the podium in his first NCAA championships. I see him losing to Bastida in the quarterfinals and then falling in the consolation quarterfinals to make the seventh-place match.
Mirasola’s finish: 7th
Champion: Bastida
Sauber: This is the second weight where Penn State has very little chance of winning a national title . Mirasola has been good for the Nittany Lions this season, but his upside, right now, is not on the level of some of the hammers Penn State has littering its lineup. He’ll have a rematch with Iowa’s Ben Kueter in the second round, in all likelihood, and I see the Hawkeye coming out on top this time. That being said, I can easily see him making a real push up the podium by going on a run in the consolation brackets. Mirasola should be able to be an All-American regardless of if/when his first loss comes.
Mirasola’s finish: 6th
Champion: North Carolina State’s Isaac Trumble
Team outlook
Cobler: The Nittany Lions will set several program records and another NCAA record once everything is settled on Saturday night when the NCAA championships are over. They will have captured their fifth straight team title — the most for the program in one streak. It would put Penn State halfway toward tying Iowa, which won nine straight from 1978 to 1986. It will have eight finalists — which would tie Iowa, who did it three times. The Nittany Lions will have seen five wrestlers get titles — tied for the most for the program and for the NCAA. They will have set a new NCAA record for most team points scored for a third straight year.
Penn State’s finish: 1st
Champion: Penn State
Sauber: There is no doubt about who is going to win the team title this weekend. It’s just a matter of how much Penn State wins by. I’ve got them crowning six individual champions to set an NCAA record — one they’ve already tied twice under Sanderson — and besting their team scoring record they set ... last year. And they set that record by defeating ... themselves from the year before. This is the greatest dynasty in the history of the sport, and there’s no stopping that train now.
Penn State’s finish: 1st
Champion: Penn State
NCAA Championships
When: Noon, Thursday (Session 1, Preliminaries and 1st Round); 7 p.m., Thursday (Session 2, 2nd Round, Consolation Preliminaries and Consolation First Round); Noon, Friday (Session 3, Quarterfinals, Consolation Second Round, Consolation Third Round); 8 p.m., Friday (Session 4, Semifinals, Consolation Fourth Round, Consolation Quarterfinals); 11 a.m., Saturday (Session 5, Consolation Semifinals, Consolation Finals, 5th place matches, 7th place matches); 6:30 p.m., Saturday (Session 6, Finals)
Where: Rocket Arena, Cleveland
Radio: Big Foot Legends (103.7 & 104.3 FM)
TV: ESPN
Online: Streaming, ESPN+; Radio, Lionvision at GoPSUsports.com
X: @byncobler, @pennstatewrest
This story was originally published March 17, 2026 at 10:55 AM.
