How Penn State can take advantage of a favorable path to make a College Football Playoff run

Penn State found out its path to a potential national title Sunday afternoon — and it’s about as good as the Nittany Lions could have expected for a team playing in the first round, with an opening-round game against SMU at Beaver Stadium on Dec. 21.

What will it take for the Nittany Lions to win it all, and who would they have to beat to do it?

Let’s take a look.

Penn State draws worst at-large team

There was a lot of discussion during the season about the potential appeal of being the No. 5 seed because it would likely mean facing a non-Power-4 conference champion and then the worst Power-4 conference champion in the first round and quarterfinals. As it turns out, that never came to fruition, and the No. 6 seed arguably has the best path to the semifinals among all of the teams playing in the first round. That starts in that initial game with SMU traveling to Happy Valley to play a game in the cold in late December.

The Mustangs are a good team and deserved to get into the field based on their 11-1 record heading into conference championship weekend — and they weren’t punished by the playoff selection committee for losing a game that most teams didn’t have to play. But that doesn’t mean they’re on the same level of Penn State. SMU has a very good head coach in Rhett Lashlee and has been a much better team since Kevin Jennings took over at quarterback for Preston Stone. That had the offense at No. 5 in ESPN analyst Bill Connelly’s SP+, a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency, but the defense is a different story. The Mustangs are No. 21 on that side of the ball in SP+ and have given up some high-scoring outputs this season. If they have any chance it will be in a shootout, and — outside of the Big Ten title game — the Nittany Lions have avoided those all season.

Boise State looms in the quarters

There are only two defenses in the playoff lower in SP+ than SMU — and one of those teams is waiting for the Nittany Lions or Mustangs in the Fiesta Bowl in the second round. Boise State has the No. 53 defense, according to the metric and has not played many opponents with offensive firepower like Penn State has. (Arizona State’s defense is second-lowest in the 12-team field at 29th.) The Broncos have, though, played Oregon and gave up 37 points to the Ducks very early in the season. The Nittany Lions have a much better track record of success this season against better defenses than the Broncos.

On the other side of the ball is where things get interesting. It’s worth noting that Boise State was No. 11 in SP+ on offense heading into the weekend, and the reason the Broncos are there is obvious. Ashton Jeanty is a generational running back and has carried the offense to its elite level of play this season. The Boise State star has 2,497 rushing yards this season and is a lock to be invited to the Heisman Trophy ceremony in New York. If there’s one reason for Penn State to fear Boise, it’s him. That being said, the Nittany Lions have a massive advantage almost everywhere else on the field, and should be able to take care of business if they get to the quarterfinals.

Nittany Lions avoid Ohio State and Oregon until late

The path is clear to get to the semifinals and, fortunately for Penn State, it won’t see the Buckeyes or Ducks if they get there. Those two teams have been a step above the rest for most of the season and are the Nos. 8 and 1 seeds, respectively, putting them on the other side of the bracket. That means if Penn State were to face off against either of the teams it lost to this season, it would be in the national championship. And if the Nittany Lions do end up getting there, those two teams are among the three most likely — joined by Texas — to make it to the season’s final game.

With those teams out of the picture for the semifinals, Penn State is looking at potentially facing Georgia or Notre Dame in a semifinal game. The third team that’s possible is Indiana, but it would take the Hoosiers pulling off two upsets — first against the Fighting Irish, then the Bulldogs — for them to get there. Any potential semifinal matchup, which would take place in the Orange Bowl, would be Penn State’s best chance to prove it has arrived among the elite teams in college football.

This story was originally published December 8, 2024 at 2:37 PM.

Jon Sauber

Centre Daily Times

(814) 231-6461

Jon Sauber covers Penn State football and men’s basketball for the Centre Daily Times. He earned his B.A. in digital and print journalism from Penn State and his M.A. in sports journalism from IUPUI. His previous stops include jobs at The Indianapolis Star, the NCAA, and Rivals.