Penn State vs. SMU: Final thoughts & analysis of PSU’s first round College Football Playoff game

Penn State will play its first ever College Football Playoff game when it takes on the SMU Mustangs in the first round on Saturday. The Nittany Lions will play the game at home in Beaver Stadium. Here are some final thoughts, questions and predictions ahead of the Nittany Lions’ matchup with the Mustangs.

Containing SMU means containing Jennings

The SMU offense took a massive step forward with Kevin Jennings at the helm after he took over for former starter Preston Stone. Jennings is a dynamic threat at quarterback, throwing for over 3,000 yards this season while rushing for 379 (which includes yardage lost on sacks). He was a major reason why the Mustangs beat Louisville when they did and why they came back to tie the ACC title game against Clemson before falling on a last-second field goal. If SMU wins this game, it’s going to be because Jennings has the kind of game that will have people around the country talking.

Because of that, the Nittany Lions will need to make him one dimensional. One of the things he does best is using his legs to create space for himself as a passer. Most mobile quarterbacks will look to take off once they have space or feel pressure, but Jennings’ ability to turn those moments into big passing plays will be what Penn State has to limit. He consistently keeps his eyes downfield, forcing opponents to stay in coverage on extended plays and giving his own weapons — like Roderick Daniels Jr. — time to get open. The Nittany Lions’ ability to stick with the Mustang passing options when Jennings goes into scramble mode will go a long way in ensuring the defense is able to limit SMU.

Penn State defensive line can wreak havoc

The upside for Penn State is that Jennings probably won’t have much time to get into those scramble situations. The Nittany Lions are better defensively than any team SMU has faced all season, and by a good margin. Not only that, their pass rush has more talent and can get to the quarterback quicker than any opponent the Mustangs have seen. That starts on the edges with Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton — two players who are more than capable of taking over a game on their own. And paired together, they can destroy just about any plan of attack. Carter gets to the quarterback with his speed and athleticism, while Dennis-Sutton is a refined pass rusher who turns speed into power at a high level to dominate opposing offensive tackles.

And the Mustangs aren’t exactly teeming with offensive tackles that are stoppers. Both of the two pass rushers should be able to get to Jennings, and from there it’s about finishing sacks and making sure he doesn’t have a chance to look for open receivers down the field. He’ll inevitably get one or two of those, but it’s on the Penn State pass rush to make sure that’s all he gets when he tries to escape the pocket. It helps, too, that if Jennings tries to evade the PSU defensive ends by stepping up, he may be stepping into defensive tackle Zane Durant, who has proven to be a force in his own right from the interior. If Penn State ends up dominating SMU and getting a big win, it’s likely because the pass rush proved to be far too much for the Mustangs to handle.

Allar has opportunity to shine

Penn State is in a strange situation — one caused by a poorly constructed calendar by the NCAA — that has left it without its backup quarterback for a potential title run. Beau Pribula, who was used throughout the season as a change of pace option to Drew Allar, announced he’s entering the portal Sunday night and will not be with the team for the playoff. That means Allar is the only actual quarterback that will likely take the field for Penn State (I am not counting tight end Tyler Warren) and the onus will be on him to make things happen for the Penn State offense.

That is not overly surprising but it eliminates any possibility that he won’t be the star of the show for the duration of the game for Penn State and he has a very strong chance of succeeding. Allar has continually improved all season and put together a very strong performance in the Big Ten title game against Oregon — and I think this will be his best game yet. There are certain moments when a quarterback can changes the narrative surrounding them, and Saturday is as good of a chance as any for the junior signal caller to have a big game and torch an SMU defense that is nowhere near as good as the Ducks’ — one Allar picked apart for the better part of 60 minutes when he last played.

Final predictions

Penn State 35, SMU 27: I don’t think SMU has the defense to slow down the Nittany Lion offense, but the Mustangs do have their own offense that can keep pace. They should be able to score against Penn State, as long as the weather doesn’t impact them too much. Jennings will get his, and will inevitably create offense for his team, but I don’t believe it will be enough at the end of the day. Penn State wins by eight, but it’s a relatively comfortable eight after SMU only makes it that close with less than three minutes remaining.

MVP: QB Drew Allar. Few players have more to gain from the College Football Playoff than Allar, and this is his chance to continue building off a strong Big Ten title game. The SMU defense is good but not great and Allar should be able to take advantage with his arm and legs. He has a chance to be the best player on the field and I think he will. Allar finishes with over 300 passing yards, three touchdowns and at least one throw that makes waves on social media.

The last word

Penn State head coach James Franklin on hosting a playoff game:

“Having a home game is huge for a ton of reasons. Obviously, hopefully, a homefield advantage — also for Happy Valley, the community — should be a win-win for everybody. So we’re excited about that. And then, SMU, we’re just getting to know them. I literally got them on the TV right now. Starting to get to know them on a much deeper level, understanding what makes them tick, how they operate, what they’ve done this year to allow them to be successful.

“I have some background with [SMU head coach Rhett] Lashlee, followed his career from afar. SMU is interesting as a place. When I was at Vanderbilt, we went and visited them for their stadium. We were talking about building a new stadium. So we went and visited a number of schools, and SMU was one of them. Obviously tremendous history and tradition at SMU. They’ve done a really good job. Look at their roster, very different than ours. I think they have 48 players from the transfer portal. We have nine. Just very different ways of building it. And they’ve obviously done a really good job. So looking forward to getting to know them a little bit better over the next couple days.”

This story was originally published December 19, 2024 at 5:00 AM.

Jon Sauber

Centre Daily Times

(814) 231-6461

Jon Sauber covers Penn State football and men’s basketball for the Centre Daily Times. He earned his B.A. in digital and print journalism from Penn State and his M.A. in sports journalism from IUPUI. His previous stops include jobs at The Indianapolis Star, the NCAA, and Rivals.