How can Penn State football beat SMU to advance in the playoff? Here are 2 key matchups

Penn State will play its first ever College Football Playoff game at noon Saturday when it takes on the SMU Mustangs in the first round at Beaver Stadium. How can the Nittany Lions defeat the Mustangs and advance to the second round against Boise State?

Here are the two key matchups to Saturday’s game that we believe will determine the outcome:

Jon Sauber: Penn State DC Tom Allen vs. SMU QB Kevin Jennings

Most of the conversation about the SMU offense this week has centered around quarterback Kevin Jennings. Players and coaches alike from Penn State have sung his praises and have emphasized the need to limit his impact on Saturday. And for good reason. Penn State defensive coordinator Tom Allen will be tasked with finding a solution to all of the ways Jennings can hurt a defense.

The Mustang offense has taken off since Jennings took over as the team’s top quarterback against BYU. He’s a versatile weapon who can do a lot of damage with his arm and his legs, but he isn’t a typical running quarterback. One of the things that makes Jennings special is that when he initially breaks contain from the pocket, he’s not immediately looking to take off. Yes, if he has a wide open running lane for an explosive play, he will take it. But his first instinct is to use his legs and create time for his receivers to go into playground mode and break open from the secondary. He’s been able to use the threat of his running ability to do that and has caused problems for almost every defense the Mustangs have faced this season. That ability is part of the reason James Franklin looked to the NFL when asked for a comparison to someone PSU has played this season.

“Lamar (Jackson). We haven’t played the Baltimore Ravens, but that’s that’s who he reminds me of,” Franklin said. “Athletic, can extend plays, can make big plays, does a really good job of keeping his eyes down the field. I think that’s his style of play. I don’t know if we have anybody else that we have played this year that’s similar to him, but his game really reminds me a lot of Lamar Jackson.”

That being said, Penn State hasn’t had many issues when it has taken on those dual-threat quarterbacks this season. West Virginia’s Garrett Greene and Ohio State’s Will Howard, two of the better dual-threat signal callers in the country, were both mostly limited on the ground. Allen was able to rely on his defense’s athleticism to limit those players and will likely have to do it again on Saturday. Edge rushers Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton are both more than capable of getting after Jennings in the backfield and can chase him down when he does escape. And it helps that linebacker Tony Rojas and safety Jaylen Reed are both athletic enough to track down Jennings. I would expect both of those players to be crucial in limiting rushing opportunities, if Penn State is able to do so.

Allen has deployed those players very effectively in the past — especially with Reed playing close to the line of scrimmage — and his gameplan for taking away Jennings, or at least limiting him, will determine how much success Penn State has against the Mustangs.

Josh Moyer: Penn State TE Tyler Warren vs. SMU DC Scott Symons

There’s no denying that’s a key matchup, Jon — but I’m taking a different tack. With versatile weapon Beau Pribula making the “impossible decision” to hit the transfer portal and miss the College Football Playoff, the Nittany Lions will have to rely even more on their Swiss Army playmaker in Tyler Warren. And, if he has a quiet game, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Mustangs stun PSU.

Now, you could say that defending Warren is a key matchup every week. But that especially holds true this week for a couple reasons, one of which is Pribula’s absence. Another reason is because few FBS teams have struggled in stopping tight ends this season as much as SMU. Based on data from CBS Sports, SMU’s defense ranks No. 129 nationally in receiving yards allowed to tight ends (627 yards) and No. 130 in receptions allowed to TEs (56).

We’ll come back to Warren — but compare that to the Mustangs’ strengths. SMU defensive coordinator Scott Symons has transformed this unit into one that doesn’t need to blitz to generate pressure and one that is elite against the run. Although SMU hasn’t routinely faced Big Ten offensive lines, it’s still just one of three FBS teams to allow less than 2.75 yards per carry. That leads me to believe it might be boom or bust for Warren and this offense. If Penn State can’t take advantage of the weak link on SMU’s defense, how can it hope to counter the Mustangs’ strengths?

Warren is the MVP of this offense, one of the nation’s most dynamic players and potentially a first-round NFL draft pick. Penn State offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki is bound to call a few plays specifically designed for Warren — and, if Warren can’t make an impact, Penn State should be put on upset alert. So I’ll be keeping a close eye on No. 44 all game, just as I’m sure SMU’s Symons will be.

This story was originally published December 19, 2024 at 12:31 PM.

Jon Sauber

Centre Daily Times

(814) 231-6461

Jon Sauber covers Penn State football and men’s basketball for the Centre Daily Times. He earned his B.A. in digital and print journalism from Penn State and his M.A. in sports journalism from IUPUI. His previous stops include jobs at The Indianapolis Star, the NCAA, and Rivals.